I was looking at North Carolina. On the stats for the 2008 early voting, there’s stats about early voting 2004 North Carolina.
This year the Republicans in North Carolina are doing 5 points better than in 2004. George Bush in 2004 was the best Republican performance Presidential since Reagan in 1984.
There was a very tight linkage between party turnout and presidential performance 2004 and 2008.
Obama outperformed Kerry net 12.5 points.
Early voting Dems were up 2.8 Republicans were down 7.2 Indys up 4.4.
If there was a presidential race this year - Republican 59% - Democrat 41%.
North Carolina
56 - 43.6 bush kerry - 12.4 (5.1) = 17.5
49.7-49.38 obama mccain -
2008 2004 2010
Dem 51.4% 48.6% 44.3%
Rep 30.2% 37.4% 38.2%
None 18.5% 14.1% 17.4%
Best Results in North Carolina since 1984 Reagan Landslide.
Lets just hope 25,000 of them don’t vote 3rd party (Barr in 08) like they did in 2008 - giving NC to Obama.