National Research poll shows Pallone barely ahead of Little: 44-43% (D Gerrymandered District)

PolitickerNJ ^ | October 18th, 2010 - 5:05pm | Editor

[frithguild]

Gov. Chris Christie campaigned with Tea Party-endorsed 6th District challenger Anna Little last night in Piscataway and intends to campaign again with her later this week. Christie has some inside intel on the race from his favorite pollster.

Republican numbers cruncher Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. shows Republican challenger Little with a shot to win in her challenge of a vulnerable U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch).

Commissioned by the Little campaign, Geller puts Pallone ahead of Little by one point, 44-43%, in a survey Geller conducted from Oct. 5-6.

The survey of 300 likely 6th Congressional District voters with a +/- 5.66% margin of error shows that district voters favor the generic Republican candidate by a margin of 43-39%.

Pallone has a favorability rating of 42%, compared to 36% unfavorable. His job approval rating, according to the poll, is 35%, compared to 39% who disapprove. Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Little leads Pallone, 58-32%. Those with a "formed opnion" of both candidates give Little the lead, 66-27%. Among voters who are a self-reported "10" in vote likelihood, Little leads 48-40%. Among independents, Little leads 49-34%.

A Monmouth University poll last month showed Pallone with a comfortable 12% lead over Little. The incumbent also has a huge money advantage, leading the challenger $4.2 million to $200,000. By the end of the evening, most insiders in both parties dismissed the poll as a GOP head fake to get Pallone to dump more money into the race and weaken himself as a statewide U.S. Senate contender.

[frithguild]

Pallone has been in for 22 years and is unabashedly in favor of Obamacare. Each of the cities depicted on this map (Asbury Park - Springsteen, Sayreville - Bon Jovi, New Brunswick - biggest state Dem machine) are traditional Democrat strongholds:

Little just edged out the establishment candidate in a primary. She has picked up Chris Christie's endorsement. This is a race worth watching.

[j.argese]

They forgot Perth Amboy. I’ll be voting for Mayor Little.

[excopconservative]

This is a race worth watching.

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Another 12 point democrat lead has just evaporated. Pallone is also a member of the Progressive caucus. We also have a good chance at defeating Progressive caucus members, Raul Grijalva (AZ-7) Co-chair, Alan Grayson (FL-08), Barney Frank (MA-04), and David Loebsack (IA-02). Members Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Jared Polis(CO-12), Ed Pastor (AZ-04), Steve Cohen (TN-09), Bob Filner (CA-51) and Peter DeFazio (OR-04) all have great candidates opposing them and may be within reach.

Are there others?

[frithguild]

I knocked on doors for Anna in Ocean Twp.

Perth Amboy is in the 13th, kind of a safe place for dems:

Election results from presidential races:
Year Office Results
2008 President Obama 75 - 24%
2004 President Kerry 69 - 31%
2000 President Gore 72 - 25%

[j.argese]

Exactly. Pallone’s Middlesex, Monmouth and so forth gerrymandered district MUST be dismantled.

[excopconservative]

Add to the list of Progressive caucus members within reach, Bennie Thompson (MS-02). The only poll there was Sept 17 and had Bill Marcy, a Palin endorsee,within one point of Thompson.

[Coleus]

good news, i hope she wins!