I’m not necessarily questioning his numbers but he think he has his retirement systems wrong.
Feds hired pre-1984 were in the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and that is a defined benefit program into which people paid a percentage that, I believe, was slightly higher than Social Security. They did not pay into social security and do not receive benefits unless they paid their quarters through another job.
FERS, which covers the rest of feds except for maybe some agency-specific retirement systems which might be out there, is based more on a 401k type of deal (Thrift Savings Plan) where employees pay Social Security, a little bit to CSRS and up to the IRS maximum into TSP. People who retire under this program will receive a small pension (not like CSRS but not nothing either), Social Security, and whatever they have in their TSP account.
It’s still a very large number but FERS itself is not a defined benefit program.
At the time, I had 9+ years in ,and opted to stay under CSRS--and took early retirment about 20 years later. But a lot of my fellow emplyees--back in '85--chose to switch to FERS. All of us, however, were given the opportunity to sign up for TSP--which is separate entity that ALL government employees MAY opt into, and thereby set aside allotments which are basically investments in stocks and bonds--low and high risk.
Until just a few years ago, the returns on those investments netted Federal employess--including Congress critters--a nice little nest egg! But you NEVER hear any Democrat mention TSP--because it reveals what hypocrites they are when they bash Repubs who dare to talk about "privatizing Social Security".
It does not suprise me that FERS is in trouble--just like PERS is in so many states. Am not sure, tho, about what's going on with CSRS--since it's been 20 years since any Fed employee could sign up for that plan. I'm sure the number of retirees still under it are diminishing at a rapid rate, unlike those under FERS. Whatever happens in the future, the Pubs better get serious about cutting back "entitlement" spending and convince the American public--including Federal employees--that it's the only way to "save" the golden goose that's been pumping out their precious nest eggs!