Philly will be the problem area in PA. As usual. Pittsburgh? Unions will be there for Onorato, but I’m not sure about the people in general. He got squat done in Pittsburgh.
In PA this time around, there is not much incentive for Democrats in Philly to come out and vote. Onorato doesn’t hold sway over Philly (and unions) like Rendell did. Sestak is not someone to get them excited.
As long as the strong conservative regions in PA turn out for Corbett and Toomey and there’s good reason to believe they will, I don’t think Philly can sway the election this year.
I go with Corbett for Governor and Toomey for Senator by 8-12 pts. in each case. Rasmussen has it about right, IMO.