You’re assuming the consumer goes in and says I won’t an android OS phone. Some will many will look at what’s there. Now there will be this consumer for the iPHone: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaxU0ut5tUw They have that market down pat.
But most consumers will shop by looking at each phone and price. When they hear mixed messages about Android (due to market fragmentation) they may steer clear of it. So they will look at iPhone and WP7. They are both in the same league...so which one will they choose? We will see.
In the end, I think new smartphone purchasers will choose phones, rather than OSs. They won’t pass on an outstanding or even very good Android phone, that has good word of mouth and review, because some low-end Android phones are giving people trouble.
Repeat buyers will tend to go with the OS they are familiar with. If WP7 had come about a year ago, and didn’t have the C&P and multi-tasking deficiencies, it probably would have competed with and quite possibly beaten Android.
I had a Windows Mobile phone for over 3 years and I was very happy with it, until I had hardware issues (with the phone function) and bought an Android. If there had been a decent WM phone on the market I would definitely would have stuck with Windows, but there wasn’t so I bought an Android, and I am even happier with it. It will be difficult to get me to switch back now.