Posted on 10/11/2010 9:00:40 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
The longtime Corpus Christi Democratic congressman and political boss is facing a stiff challenge from Republican Blake Farenthold. He is the step-grandson of Sissy Farenthold, the onetime leader of the Dirty Thirty in the Texas House of Representatives during the 1971 Sharpstown Scandal, who finished second (to Dolph Briscoe) in the 1972 Democratic gubernatorial primary, knocking Ben Barnes out of the race and ending his promising political career. Now another Farenthold is positioned to knock off Ortiz. Word on the street in Corpus Christi is that Farenthold has an 8 point lead in the district, which runs south along the coast to the Rio Grande and upriver into Hidalgo County, and an even bigger lead in Nueces County.
Few Texans realize what is going on in Nueces County. It is going to be the state’s first Republican Hispanic county. The Republicans have recruited several Hispanic women in local races this fall. One of the main reasons for this evolution is Ortiz, whose strong personality has made him a polarizing figure in regional politics and divided Democrats. He may have committed the mistake of staying too long. His political machine is leaking oil; Ortiz-backed candidates performed poorly in spring elections in Nueces and nearby San Patricio counties.
A Farenthold victory would be a huge symbolic win for the Republican party–capturing a Democratic seat and establishing a beachhead in South Texas. It could also have an impact on other local races, including those of Democratic state representatives Solomon Ortiz Jr. and Abel Herrero.
RUTH MCCLUNG IS AHEAD IN ARIZONA 7....Hey Raul boycott this!!!!! Donate to her...she needs money bad...Get Palin in there
Texas Monthly is a rather liberal glossy magazine. They are hardly cheerleaders for conservative Republicans.
And Burka loved Ann Richards so this article is interesting. I’ve always liked Corpus.
Yes, Burka is a liberal journalist... if he says its ‘word on the street’ it means not just a few Repubs are touting it.
If the Republican challenger really is up though, he should publish his poll. If we knock this seat out ... WOW. this is not even in the top 100. WE could be seeing an 80-100 seat gain.
My projection is 111 seats in the House. Perhaps as high as 117. Mark it down.
Solomon ia a misnomer.
If you want on, or off this S. Texas/Mexico ping list, please FReepMail me.
Cameron County must have a lot of free thinking, liberty minded hispanics. I will never forget that in 2004 Bush won Cameron County. I remember a liberal reporterette asking a distinguished Hispanic Man, “ How could you vote for George Bush? ( Insinuating, How could you betray your Race?) He looked at he indignently and said “ George Bush is MY president.
TX 27 is rated R+0 so it should not suprise anyone in a wave year that an old man who has over stayed his welcome, would be defeated.
I get the feeling that Hispanics are in the mood to punish the Obama administration and Democrats.
ottom line: Despite his 28 years in Congress, or maybe because of it, Solomon Ortiz finds himself in a difficult challenge for re-election, probably his most competitive race in his congressional political career. This fact was proven in our survey which put Republican Blake Farenthold ahead of Congressman Ortiz by 44% Farenthold to 36% Ortiz. In light of these findings it’s fair to say that Farenthold has a definite path to victory and Ortiz has to be considered one of the vulnerable Democrat incumbents this year.Key Findings:
* Blake Farenthold holds a net +22% image (35% favorable, 13% unfavorable).* More voters now hold an unfavorable than a favorable opinion of Solomon Ortiz (42% favorable, 44% unfavorable)
* Ortiz’s image is suffering the most in the Corpus Christi media market, where he is viewed unfavorably (37% favorable to 50% unfavorable)
* Farenthold holds a sixteen point lead over Ortiz on the ballot test in the Corpus Christi market (48% Farenthold, 32% Ortiz, and 2% for the Libertarian candidate, Ed Mishou), falling just two points below the magic number of 50% in a media market that includes two out of every three historic voters in the district. Given the percentage of voters in that same region who hold an unfavorable opinion about him (50%), Ortiz has a difficult hill to climb in the Corpus Christi area.
* In the Harlingen media market, Ortiz is ahead, as is somewhat expected (34% Farenthold, 46% Ortiz, 18% Undecided); however Ortiz is below 50% in that region and Farenthold is holding his own at 34%, making it possible for Farenthold to obtain a percentage in the area in the mid-forties, if Independents break even between him and Ortiz.
* Farenthold holds an 18% lead over Ortiz among voters who say their voting pattern is to split the ticket (42% Farenthold, 24% Ortiz, and 29% Undecided).
* The political environment is favorable to Farenthold: 66% of the voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 26% who believe it’s going in the right direction. The district-wide generic ballot favors a Republican (44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% Undecided). President Obama is not as unpopular in TX-27 as he is in other districts but he is still viewed unfavorably (39% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Speaker Pelosi is viewed even more negatively (26% favorable, 57% unfavorable)
* The worst number for Ortiz is that only 39% of voters surveyed believe he deserves another term in Congress, while 52% believe he has not earned another term.
* This poll interviewed 400 registered voters in the district, 60% of whom were Hispanic, matching the Voting-Age population of the district. The 400 interviewees were randomly selected and were stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
we need term limits. 28 years is ridiculous.
very few people live in Kenedy County
Here's a link to a YouTube video of Ortiz addressing the 2010 Texas DemocRAT state convention.
Solomon Ortiz: "My time is up"
But there must be at least 100,000 cows.
Seriously putting Kennedy county in the middle of the district creates the illusion that it's a contiguous district. Really it's two completely different political entities that are competitors for the attention of the congressman.
But there must be at least 100,000 cows.
And some wind turbines........
That is probably true
Sissy Farenthold! I haven’t heard her name mentioned in years! One of the funniest things I have ever seen was when she was running for office one of her supporters was a raving fag and he was wearing a shirt that said SISSY on the front. :D
Kenedy County, TexasFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Kenedy County, Texas
Location in the state of Texas
Texas's location in the U.S.
Founded 1921
Seat Sarita
Area
- Total 1,946 sq mi (5,040 km²)
- Land 1,457 sq mi (3,774 km²)
- Water 489 sq mi (1,267 km²), 25.12%Population
- (2000) 414
- Density 0/sq mi (0.11/km²)Kenedy County is a county located in the U.S. state of Texas. It is part of the Kingsville Micropolitan Statistical Area. In 2000, its population was 414. Its seat is Sarita[1], and the county is named for Mifflin Kenedy, an early rancher in the area. Kenedy County has the distinction of having the fourth lowest-population of any county in the United States, following Loving County, Texas, Kalawao County, Hawaii, and King County, Texas. It is also the easternmost county in the United States that has more square miles than people. The county was created in 1921 from parts of Hidalgo and Willacy counties. In 1999, Hurricane Bret struck the county, but damage was minimal due to the county's low population. A wind turbine plant is being built near Sarita and is expected to slightly raise the population of the area.
The King Ranch covers a large part of the county. [1]
Redistricting will fix that.
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