Posted on 10/06/2010 7:37:23 AM PDT by Uncledave
As hard as pollsters try, it is almost impossible to glean a sample of actual likely voters in an off-year election. Particularly this year, it is difficult to distinguish between dutiful voters who say they are likely to vote and those who are actually going to make it to the polls. As in any off-year election, turnout matters.
According to the latest Gallup poll, Republicans only enjoy a 3 point lead in the generic party ballot among all registered voters. But among those most likely to vote, the edge expands to 18 points (56-38). Twice as many Republicans as Democrats report themselves to be "very enthusiastic" about voting in the survey.
Remember that Obama got about the same percentage of white votes in 2008 as Kerry won in 2004. His victory was entirely due to a big increase in black turnout (from 11 percent of the vote in 2004 to 14 percent in 2008) and in his greater popularity among Latinos. Turnout elected Obama, and turnout will defeat his congressional majority
The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap against them by running exclusively negative campaigns against their insurgent Republican rivals. The vast proportion of Democratic and allied independent-expenditure media is negative, portraying Republican congressional candidates as tax evaders, spousal abusers, mob-linked, eccentric flakes, sexual molesters and absentee officeholders (all actual charges against key GOP candidates). While these ads may chip away at the Republican vote share in the polls, they do nothing to generate a Democratic turnout.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
“among all registered voters”
That includes the dead and the fraudulent, illegal votes for the marxist party known as the dems.
It is 'likely' I will vote before 8:00 AM on the first day of early voting, but it is possible it could be as late as 8:30 AM.
I can see November from my lanai.
5.56mm
The weekend rallies were a perfect example of the coming turnout gap.
Even being paid to attend, given free lunch, and free transportation the America haters couldn’t even approach the turnout for the 8/28 rally.
a paid volunteer is not as enthusiastic as an unpaid volunteer.
remember how all the obama “offices” had staffers who just sat around and did nothing but collect money?
Moochie is now demanding donations so they have enough money to pay the election ‘volunteers’.
America haters couldnt even approach the turnout for the 8/28 rally
Correcto... and the dem pols know it full well inspite of their spin.
So how do democrats increase democrat voter turnout? SIMPLE!! They tell voters that the lame duck session will be spent ENDING ALL ENTITLEMENTS, should democrats lose the majority. GUARANTEED 100% black, latino turnout!!!!
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