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The Widening Turnout Gap
RCP ^ | 10/6/2010 | Dick Morris

Posted on 10/06/2010 7:37:23 AM PDT by Uncledave

As hard as pollsters try, it is almost impossible to glean a sample of actual likely voters in an off-year election. Particularly this year, it is difficult to distinguish between dutiful voters who say they are likely to vote and those who are actually going to make it to the polls. As in any off-year election, turnout matters.

According to the latest Gallup poll, Republicans only enjoy a 3 point lead in the generic party ballot among all registered voters. But among those most likely to vote, the edge expands to 18 points (56-38). Twice as many Republicans as Democrats report themselves to be "very enthusiastic" about voting in the survey.

Remember that Obama got about the same percentage of white votes in 2008 as Kerry won in 2004. His victory was entirely due to a big increase in black turnout (from 11 percent of the vote in 2004 to 14 percent in 2008) and in his greater popularity among Latinos. Turnout elected Obama, and turnout will defeat his congressional majority

The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap against them by running exclusively negative campaigns against their insurgent Republican rivals. The vast proportion of Democratic and allied independent-expenditure media is negative, portraying Republican congressional candidates as tax evaders, spousal abusers, mob-linked, eccentric flakes, sexual molesters and absentee officeholders (all actual charges against key GOP candidates). While these ads may chip away at the Republican vote share in the polls, they do nothing to generate a Democratic turnout.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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1 posted on 10/06/2010 7:37:28 AM PDT by Uncledave
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To: Uncledave

“among all registered voters”

That includes the dead and the fraudulent, illegal votes for the marxist party known as the dems.


2 posted on 10/06/2010 7:41:25 AM PDT by dynachrome ("Our forefathers didn't bury their guns. They buried those that tried to take them.")
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To: Uncledave
It should be fairly easy. If you turn out and vote in primaries and local elections you are a likely voter. I haven't missed a vote since i turned 18. The bad news is i live in Cook Crook County Illinois and those dead democrats don't miss any elections either.
3 posted on 10/06/2010 7:43:38 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: dynachrome
I am a 'likely voter'.

It is 'likely' I will vote before 8:00 AM on the first day of early voting, but it is possible it could be as late as 8:30 AM.

4 posted on 10/06/2010 7:52:43 AM PDT by San Jacinto
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To: Uncledave
Polls? I don't need no stinkin' polls.

I can see November from my lanai.

5.56mm

5 posted on 10/06/2010 7:59:33 AM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: Uncledave

The weekend rallies were a perfect example of the coming turnout gap.

Even being paid to attend, given free lunch, and free transportation the America haters couldn’t even approach the turnout for the 8/28 rally.


6 posted on 10/06/2010 8:04:41 AM PDT by Carley (For those who fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know.)
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To: Carley

a paid volunteer is not as enthusiastic as an unpaid volunteer.

remember how all the obama “offices” had staffers who just sat around and did nothing but collect money?


7 posted on 10/06/2010 8:26:56 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: longtermmemmory

Moochie is now demanding donations so they have enough money to pay the election ‘volunteers’.


8 posted on 10/06/2010 8:28:23 AM PDT by Carley (For those who fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know.)
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To: Carley

America haters couldn’t even approach the turnout for the 8/28 rally

Correcto... and the dem pols know it full well inspite of their spin.


9 posted on 10/06/2010 8:42:50 AM PDT by dusttoyou (Let the other side get all wee-wee'd up, Remember come November)
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To: Uncledave

So how do democrats increase democrat voter turnout? SIMPLE!! They tell voters that the lame duck session will be spent ENDING ALL ENTITLEMENTS, should democrats lose the majority. GUARANTEED 100% black, latino turnout!!!!


10 posted on 10/06/2010 8:48:01 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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