Posted on 10/05/2010 5:48:21 AM PDT by randita
Democrats, Republicans see state House control as grand prize
Published: Monday, October 04, 2010, 10:24 PM, Updated: Tuesday, October 05, 2010, 8:27 AM
JAN MURPHY, The Patriot-News
The battle for control of the state House of Representatives is on.
Republicans see nothing standing in the way of them regaining the majority after four years of Democratic control. If the GOP picks up at least three House seats on Nov. 2, Republicans will reclaim the majority.
Democrats, meanwhile, anticipate no scenario in which they lose the majority. For them, it’s a matter of how many more seats they add to the 104 they now hold in that 203-seat chamber.
With one month to go before they find out who is right, leaders of both campaign operations say being in a position to control the legislative agenda in the House is the prize that matters most to them.
But House Democratic campaign operatives cite another reason they are anxious to retain their majority in the House. They want a seat at the table next year when the Legislature and governor tackle the once-in-a-decade task of redrawing congressional district boundaries.
Republicans are virtually assured that they have a say in that process. The GOP holds a 10-seat advantage in the 50-member state Senate. Republicans are virtually assured of retaining control of that chamber.
Democrats want to avoid a repeat of 2001, when Republicans dominated that redistricting process through their control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. The GOP leaders established districts that Democrats have little to no chance of winning. “If Republicans control all branches of government in 2011, then they will use redistricting like a political chainsaw and they will carve out anybody they don’t like,” said Mark Nevins, a Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant.
Political scientist G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster said that’s not just a Republican tendency. Democrats would do the same thing if they had the chance.
One thing both parties agree on is gaining control of the House is worth the time and money being spent to make it happen. “We will be going into a budget cycle with the greatest deficit in the history of the commonwealth where every issue and every program will be on the table. In addition to that, we have redistricting. Never before has there been a confluence of such important and significant issues,” said Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Montgomery County, who chairs the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Gerber said he is buoyed by polls and candidates’ energy, fundraising and tales about voter reaction at campaign stops.
Citing similar evidence, Rep. Dave Reed, chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee, expressed optimism that Election Day will end on a happy note for the GOP. “We feel very good about where we’re at,” said Reed, R-Indiana County. “Our incumbents are very strong across the board. Certainly, a couple of them will be targeted along the way just as there will be a number of Democratic incumbents targeted. But we feel overall we’re going to be back in the majority.”
Gaining control of the House is critical to both parties for one other reason, which that has to do with Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett and Democratic candidate Dan Onorato.
If Corbett gets elected and has a Republican-controlled Legislature, Madonna said, “he can largely make decisions without the involvement of the minority party.”
If the House remains in Democratic control, it will mean no major issue gets done for Corbett without negotiation.
The same goes for Onorato, regardless of whether the Democrats win control of the House. The Senate is expected to remain a Republican stronghold. Still, Onorato would have a stronger negotiating position with a House controlled by his fellow Democrats.
While Madonna is predicting Republicans hold a slightly better chance of winning control of the House than Democrats, he said: “My guess is we will have two to three House members lose that we never thought about ... and they’ll be some surprises. ... It could even be on the Republican side.”
The numbers
— Races for open House seats, where incumbent is retiring: 17 (7 now held by Republicans and 10 now held by Democrats) — Uncontested House incumbents: 77 — Contested House races (including open seats): 126 — Races for open Senate seats, where incumbent is retiring: 3 (all now held by Democrats) — Uncontested Senate incumbents: 7 — Contested Senate races (including open seats): 18
Staff writer Kari Andren contributed to this report.
VIP
“Very Important Ping”
Cross your fingers!\
Fraud will be record high as Demoncrats struggle to “win”.
ping
I think the Dems will lose the Lentz seat.
I’m predicting that Dems lose the following PA seats:
PA03, PA07, PA08, PA10, and PA11
The GOP will keep PA06 (which was a big Dem target for takeover, but Gerlach will hold on. DIttos for PA15, Dent will keep it.
PA04, PA12 (Murtha) and PA17 are longer shots, but depending on turnout and how Indies go, these are within reach of the GOP. But I think they’re going to stay Dem unless there really is a tsunami.
My predictions are for the U.S. House, not the state house.
“Fraud will be record high...”
*****
the shtf on election day and the days following...get ready for it.
I think your predictions are pretty good.
The place is corrupt with union thugs, bought brothers and dead absentee voters.
Been there before, and the demonRATS that run the precinct {404 reg demonRATs, 8 reg pubbies} bring in paid voters to try to use other people's forms.
In 2004 we cut the number of votes in half, from 400 in 2000 to 200 in 2004.
All but 4 votes went to the demonRATS, but saving 200 votes was worth the effort.
I am never alone in this place, we always have at least two and sometimes 3 pubbie poll watchers.
I always have my little friend with me and so far we've never had any physical confrontations.
THANK YOU!!!!
I’m READY!
I’ve had more than enough of this B.S.!
Please post the results on election day!
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