[Cheerio]

However, it may be that Democrats are successfully motivating their base to vote.

Not sure how a poll would be impacted by whether the voter is apathetic and stays home or whether they are motivated to get out and vote. Is one of the questions by the pollster "Are you planning on sitting this one out?"

[Tennessean4Bush]

Is one of the questions by the pollster "Are you planning on sitting this one out?"

There are several questions, actually, that pollsters ask to determine how "likely" someone is to vote. For instance, one is always, "Did you vote in 2008?" if they were eligible to vote, and "Have you been following the race between _________ and __________ for the senate?" or whatever race they are polling about.