[randita]

Follow all the up-to-date expert ratings at:

Key House Races-Experts

[randita]

PING

[GailA]

Fire Steve Cohen (obamabot) http://www.cohenforcongress.com/

and elect for the 9th US District Tennessee

Charlotte Bergmann http://www.charlottebergmann.com/

[Matchett-PI]

bttt

[perfect_rovian_storm]

A little poll porn for all to enjoy this morning.

[ccdemuth]

Incumbents are even starting to struggle in New England, where Jim Himes was one of two incumbents recently downgraded from “likely” to “leans” Democratic by Larry Sabato. The problem with Himes’ record of punishing success so that he can subsidize failure is the unintended, if not unexpected, consequence of distorting the economy. If one ignores the costs and does not take into account incentives, then Himes’ ideas are not so terrible. However, costs and incentives matter and have played a role in the public policy outcome of the past two years. Voters are getting more of what we have subsidized (failure) and less of what we punished (success) and are left paying the costs. While it has been an expensive experiment, it is at least comforting to see the results confirm every one of the previous social experiments in government-run economies.

[Fresh Wind]

PA-08 (Murphy-D): (snip) Independent polling shows Murphy trailing, while his own polls show him with a statistically insignificant lead. In a year like 2010, that is too close for comfort, prompting a Crystal Ball rating change from Toss-Up to Leans R.

The independent polling cited has Patrick "Lap Dog" Murphy trailing by 14 points. This morning I saw a "Republicans for Murphy" yard sign. I had to LOL at that.

[InterceptPoint]

Nice.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is a preview into tomorrow's analysis of predictions, based on Sabato's new changes.

Sabato's changes added two more House seats for Republicans. Looking good!

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30
31-Jul-10	203	209.06	215	2.96%	30
07-Aug-10	203	209.15	215	3.11%	30
14-Aug-10	204	209.33	215	3.33%	30
21-Aug-10	204	209.86	216	4.47%	30
28-Aug-10	205	210.91	217	7.03%	31
04-Sep-10	206	211.88	218	10.45%	32
11-Sep-10	208	213.67	220	20.31%	34
18-Sep-10	208	214.1	220	23.14%	35
25-Sep-10	209	214.72	221	27.54%	35
02-Oct-10	210	216.25	222	39.46%	37

-PJ