[RockinRight]

WI
WV
PA
ND
IN
IL
CO
AR
NV

[counterpunch]

My list of most to least likely is as follows:
ND, AR, IN, PA, CO, WI, WV, IL, NV, NY, WA, CA, CT, DE, OR

It seems you agree, but you stop at 9.
As it stands now, I believe the GOP will pick up at least 11 of them.