Posted on 09/27/2010 7:08:36 AM PDT by Delacon
By the numbers alone, Delaware is a tough state for GOP candidates. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 100,000 in a state with only 620,000 voters. The last time the state went for the Republican presidential candidate was 1988, and it hasn’t sent a Republican senator to Washington since 1994.
Even if Christine O’Donnell did not carry her burden of controversial television clips, she would face an extremely difficult challenge. Recent polls haven’t been promising: The September 16 Rasmussen poll has her opponent, Democrat Chris Coons, ahead by 11 points, while the September 18 Fox News poll gives him a 15-point lead. Both polls show that a large number of voters already have negative feelings about O’Donnell — 60 percent in the Fox poll say that she is not qualified to be a senator, while 54 percent in the Rasmussen poll viewed her unfavorably.
Coons’s website urges voters “to show Delaware won’t elect a Tea Party senator.” And, unfortunately, that message has some resonance. Forty percent of voters in the Fox poll were strongly opposed to the tea-party movement, while another 9 percent were somewhat opposed. “[Delaware] is still a state that is very centrist in its own politics. I don’t think that fact has changed in the last two weeks or two months, to be honest,” said GOP strategist Don Mell.
How can O’Donnell prevail in such circumstances? She will have to sell two ideas to voters: that Republican policies will benefit the state more than Democratic ones would, and that she herself is qualified to represent Delaware in the Senate. And that is what her campaign has set out to do.
O’Donnell’s first step is reintroducing herself to the voters. “It’s no secret that there’s been a rather unflattering portrait of me portrayed,” she said during a candidate forum last week. According to a campaign spokesman, she plans on “traveling throughout the state, unveiling her positions on a variety of issues over the course of the campaign and . . . contrast[ing them] with those of her opponent in the race.”
Signaling her determination to concentrate on Delaware, O’Donnell announced last week that she would no longer appear on national media outlets. In an interview with Sean Hannity (her last such appearance), she said the exposure wouldn’t help her get votes. “I instead want to go to as many town-hall forums, as many candidate forums, as many church picnics that I can fit into my schedule, so that I can meet the voters,” she explained.
O’Donnell is also working to reassure voters that she has no intention of implementing her non-political convictions. “I have my personal beliefs, but our Constitution defends our right for the voters to disagree with me. And that’s the right that I’m going to defend,” she told Hannity.
Next, she’ll have to sell her policies. While much of the country, tired of high unemployment and the economic fallout from the recession, is turning right on the economy, Delaware seems relatively indifferent.
That may be attributable to Delaware’s unemployment rate of 8.4 percent, lower than the national rate of 9.6 percent. There is discontent over the state of the economy — 66 percent rate it as “not so good” or “fair” in the Fox poll — but there doesn’t seem to be any clear consensus that it’s the Obama administration’s fault. Thirty-five percent think Obama’s policies have hurt, while about the same number believe they have helped.
O’Donnell’s campaign thinks that her fiscally conservative message will appeal in Delaware. A campaign spokesman said that her “fresh, outside approach” would be attractive to Delaware residents “trying to make ends meet and provide a better life for their children and families.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director Brian Walsh compares her approach to Scott Brown’s. “Brown focused on a simple message — less government and lower taxes — and it clearly resonated, even in one of the bluest states in the country,” Walsh says.
Chris Coons is now receiving more serious scrutiny. The man dubbed “my pet” by Senate majority leader Harry Reid is a committed liberal — and O’Donnell’s campaign plans to highlight that, hanging Reid, Democratic tax hikes, and Obama’s unpopular agenda around his neck.
In a small state like Delaware, O’Donnell’s significantly higher fundraising haul — thanks to a massive outpouring of conservative support around the country — and the advertising opportunities it gives her pack a significant wallop. There is some fertile ground for her: Fifty percent of voters in the Fox poll want to repeal Obamacare, 53 percent prefer a “smaller government that provides fewer services,” and 49 percent agree that “the federal government has gotten totally out of control and threatens our basic liberties unless we clean house and commit to drastic change.” They may not embrace the tea party, but they’re not huge fans of the current status quo, either.
But what if Mike Castle decides to run as a write-in candidate? According to recent reports, Castle — who has refused to endorse O’Donnell — is doing polling to find out what his chances would be. Mell notes that in diminutive Delaware, “really a congressional district” in size, a write-in candidacy could be much more competitive than it would be in a larger state. Interestingly, a Castle write-in candidacy could help O’Donnell. New York Times poll analyst Nate Silver argues that it will be difficult for O’Donnell to nab more than about 30 percent of the vote, so a three-way race may be her best shot. O’Donnell’s campaign refuses to speculate on Castle’s decision. Walsh merely says that the NRSC “firmly support[s] Christine O’Donnell.”
There are still more than five weeks left in the campaign. As O’Donnell’s unexpected primary victory showed, she can be a strong campaigner, and — this year — almost anything is possible.
ping
I wonder how this may change if Castle runs write-in. I’ve heard it might help her
I still maintain it’s going to take a major Coons scandal to give O’Donnell a shot. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen though.. hopefully our side has a lot of opposition research ongoing. We need far more than “bearded Marxist” and we need it soon.
DE voters don't care about that... those people kept Biden in office over a generation. We need a scandal against Coons.
Just watched Clinton (at a Bwarney Fwank event) actually refer to Christine O’ as ‘that witchy lady’.
Also showed BC sitting down with his slack-jawed mouth hanging open while BF was speaking.
BC is still a disgraceful, mental midget.
She would do better if republican talking heads would stop trying to convince people to vote against her.
What that means is that all the pictures there might have been on the net that had Chris standing there with some young men wearing suits, or beach togs, have been REMOVED.
Still, quite tellingly, the ONLY shots of Coons with women close to him are with that rent-a-family with the blond gal and the 2.3 kids.
I want to see the rest of his life ~ the people who he parties with, the lobbyists in the county manager's office, the female secretaries who don't look like middle-aged African-American matrons, and all the rest of it.
This guy's pictoral life on Google.com com is entirely too vacant to be real ~ so I can only infer what it is that we are missing ~ by what he is undoubtedly hiding!
No real politician could have so little in the way of "friends" and "friendlies" as this guy and ever win an election!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm67MwsYz4M&feature=player_embedded
http://www.chriscoons.com/issues/energy/
“The energy policies of the 20th century have led to an unsustainable energy system in America. This is why America cannot continue along this current path of an addiction to foreign oil and a dangerous buildup of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. Chris Coons believes we can free ourselves from this current system by diversifying the country’s energy sources.
Chris wants to encourage other innovative programs like wind farming just off the shore of Delaware. He also is calling for a nationwide cap and trade program that will help establish a price on carbon and unleash the creativity of American ingenuity to help solve this crisis. “
There are hundreds of problems - averting bankruptcy for New Castle County with 5% - 17.5% - 25% property tax increases - and guess what - he needs to raise property taxes enough to get 72% more income to keep from being bankrupt in 2014!
So, people ignore the facts... Guess it’s OUR job to inform them!
those people kept Biden in office over a generation.
**********
there seems to be a lot of morons living in Delaware.
What Christine needs to do is about what she is doing:
Make it crystal clear that the Democratic Party is a tragedy of subverting the responsible, self reliant, productive people of the Nation and State, through cultivating the irresponsible and dependent for votes and power. Just ask how obvious is that? Government controlled healthcare? Taxpayer - government finance of poorly run corporations? Government condoning an illegal invasion in total contradiction of taxpayer loyalty and all international standards?
Make it crystal clear about the George Soros financed organizations interjecting themselves into the DE culture.
Make it crystal clear how the only ideology that Democrats can offer, and it seems pathologic, is greater and greater government control of the individual, when in a contemporary environment of computer enhanced tremendous communication and manufacturing potential the exact opposite is called for - the increased individual access, and empowerment to pursue ones own decisions, along with the imaginative innovations possible by those means.
How obvious are the principles? We either stand by them, as a nation, as a State, as an individual, or go the sad obsequious way of the Republican Party represented by this article.
Johnny Suntrade
The polling data seems to confirm that three way races help the most conservative candidate when the third candidate is a RINO.
Crist helps Rubio and Murkowski helps Miller.
The wave is high for conservatives right now and a Castle candidacy would help Christine. Maybe Castle knows that and is doing us a favor.
Given half a chance, I bet he'd wave his "wand" at her, though.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Delaware voters finds Coons with 49% support, while O’Donnell earns 40% of the vote. Castle, a longtime congressman who lost to O’Donnell in the state’s GOP Primary, picks up five percent (5%). Another five percent (5%) remain undecided. (See toplines).
LOL, they should think of us every time they deposit into their Roth IRA, or enjoy their Kemp/Roth tax cuts...
Don’t forget John Williams (The Conscience of the Senate) and Cale Boggs to add a couple more...
I agree, a Castle write-in campaign helps O’Donnell, no question. It will split the squishy “centrist” (knee-jerk lib) vote, and the race will go to Christine.
Some free advice for Christine O’Donnell:
1) Campaign on making the creation of private sector jobs your number one priority.
2) Make repealing Obamacare your number two priority.
3) Remind the voters that your opponent is a self-described bearded Marxist and raised taxes in his county many times.
Do just those three things and ignore all distractions, she should win easily.
AWESOME! O’Donnel is only 9 down with 5 weeks to go? GREAT! I think she can make up 4-1/2 points!
Coons’ bearded marxist stuff wont hold with DE voters anymore than O’Donnell’s wiccan stuff. What will hold is hanging the Obama policies guaranteed yes vote from Coons. “Coons... Reid’s Pet” should be the bumper sticker of choice amongst DE republicans right now. Unfortunately the state GOP is busy working on how Castle can best help the democratic party.
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