Not only would my argument certainly have complete validity in a Presidential election year, it has validity this year as well.
Let's look at the Scott Brown election. 1.9mm MA Democrats voted for Obama in 2008, 1.1mm MA Democrats voted for Coakley in 2010. That's a Democrat dropoff of 45%.
1.11mm MA Republicans voted for McCain in 2008. 1.17mm MA Republicans voted for Brown in 2010. That's a 5% increase.
MA turnout in 2010 overall was 74% of what it was in 2008.
However, DE is not MA. DE is 21% African-American vs. 6% for MA. Democrat turnout in DE in 2010 will not almost halve as in MA.
Moreover, I would assume that every single fired-up Tea Party activist in DE voted O'Donnell last night - and she got 30,000 votes.
If DE has 74% of 2008 turnout, that would mean 300,000 votes cast in the general, meaning that O'Donnell's fired up base would account for 10% of the vote.
Brown won by less than 5% in MA. He would have lost if MA was 21% African-American.
O'Donnell has a ton of work to do.
“DE is 21% African-American”
And what percentage of the electorate? Yeah, it’s a road to hoe, but it can be done.