Okay, quickly...here’s the latest scoop.
turnout estimated, I don’t know based on what...to be about 30,000. Fox’s Carl Cameron reporting,says biggest turnout seems to be New Castle county, with Bush GOTV voters out.
I have no idea what this means except supposed to be good for Castle.
I myself spoke with a Castle supporter this morning. He told me that 20000 people were called up in New Castle county. 8000 of these people agreed to go vote for Castle. Oh, these 20,000 called were all folks registered Republican who did NOT vote in 2008. How they know this I dunno but we did have to sign something today so I guess it’s part of a record somewhere.
Anyway the idea was to get Castle favored Repubs that normally DON’T vote out to vote.
If those 8000 should show up and vote for Castle, that’s a substantial amount.
I don’t believe it for a minute as these are notoriously unreliable voters and Mike Castle has never been a dynamite candidate no matter the media might tell you. Mike Castle wins cause that’s just the way it is. For spontaneous and sudden bursts of Castle favoring voters to suddenly merge to the polls is not a normal thing here in Delaware.
But if maybe 10% of those that made a promise to show up, a possible number, it could affect the outcome.
BUT...again, O’Donnell’s had people manning the phones too. The Tea Party Express is fighting this case with a vengeance. I’m not sure this effort on behalf of Castle will make much of a difference except to maybe make him look better in the final result, either by a bigger win or a not so big loss.
Frankly, at this time, 7:30 pm....I couldn’t call this race. I’d have to say it was too close to call.
UGH and *sigh* - My husband speculated and asked me earlier today if I thought Castle’s old supporters would bus “old people” from rest homes to the polls? Apparently, he was thinking along the right lines.
I also heard Carl Cameron’s report, and IIRC he didn’t mention the voter turn-out in Sussex County where I think you told me Christine will be strong.
I wouldn’t rate the Castle operation that high. They’ve been calling me and bombing my mailbox non-stop for days. However, every contact I’ve ever had with his people over the years was to repeatedly slam him and to remind them that I would be voting again for someone else. The only contact his campaign should have had with me was to remind me to vote next week. *g*
Castle has made a career out of avoiding tough races. It’s easy to win when you have no opposition. Praising Castle for his winning election record is a bit like praising Kim Il-Sung for his.
Congrats.
And honestly the moment after I read your scoop I thought Christine was going to win.
People will agree to almost anything on the phone to get off the phone, and the fact that they got 8,000 commitment out of 20,000 people called said to me that out of those 20,000, only about 8,000 would admit to supporting Castle. That’s only about 40% support, if Castle is batting under 50% with that group there is no reason to think he’d do any bad among all the Republican voters.