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Madison was all over the map, unable to make up his mind if he were a federalist or a republican, but was 100% in the federalist camp when this was written and, I believe, being more than a little disingenuous.

46 The conclusion which I am warranted in drawing from these observations is that a mere demarcation on parchment of the constitutional limits of the several departments is not a sufficient guard against those encroachments which lead to a tyrannical concentration of all the powers of government in the same hands.

Prescient. "A mere demarcation on parchment" is not enough. The constitution, in and of itself, does not protect us. We, the voters, must be educated and vigilant. Thank you for this work which is forcing me to be clear about my own thoughts.

Madison points out that the Legislative branch tends to accrete power at the expense of the other branches. Experience has shown that all three branches have made grabs for power over the centuries. Why did Madison not see that the competition between branches would be so stiff?

I think he did see that the competition between the branches would be so stiff. His solution was negative checks on power. That is, unless all three branches agreed, a bill could not pass a veto or a law could not be declared constitutional. All three had to agree. They could negate the other two but not do anything on their own. Negative checks.

There are two obvious failures. First, with the Judiciary "legislating from the bench", for example extending marriage to gay couples, something neither the Legislature nor the Executive agreed to. Second, the Executive creating laws through the regulatory process with the acquiescence of the court, for example declaring CO2 a pollutant, without congressional approval.

What I think Madison did NOT see was that congress would willingly give up its power to the executive by creating the regulatory process. Both Republicans and Democrats have decided to do this because, I believe, they want to pass laws without really knowing what they are passing. That is they can go home and claim "I voted for the Clean Air Act!’ and not be held responsible for the result of their vote. The Democrats have decided to do this because they know that they cannot know the unintended consequences of their excessive Socialist laws and need an singular executive to change the laws as consequences are about to occur.