Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows

New York Times ^ | 09/08/2010 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

Republicans now have approximately a one-in-four chance of winning enough Senate seats in the Nov. 2 elections to claim an outright majority of the chamber, FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecasting model shows.

That the composition of the Senate is in doubt is not a new development; the model had assigned Republicans better than a one-in-five chance of claiming the chamber upon its debut at The New York Times two weeks ago. Nevertheless, nearly every day now seems to bring another sour piece of polling news for the Democrats.

Today, for instance, a poll for The Washington Post showed Republicans with a 13-point lead among likely voters on the generic Congressional ballot, which would imply a potentially catastrophic outcome for Democrats. Although the polling trend is not always uniform or predictable — Gallup’s generic ballot poll, which had given Republicans a 10-point advantage last week, now shows the two parties running evenly — the Democrats’ hopes for a spontaneous political recovery this summer now appear to be dashed.

Although the generic ballot is used to help calibrate FiveThirtyEight’s Senate model, most of its inputs are polls of individual Senate races. There, the news is somewhat more mixed. Although polls have come out in the last two weeks showing the Republican nominee in Kentucky, Rand Paul, with an increasingly large lead, and Pat Toomey, the G.O.P. nominee in Pennsylvania, with an expanding advantage over his Democratic opponent, Representative Joe Sestak, a recent poll in Colorado showed the Democratic incumbent, Michael Bennet, with a slight lead. And the model now regards Harry Reid as a slight favorite to retain his seat in Nevada, which was not the case two weeks ago.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SeekAndFind. This one is by the same author:

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[mac_truck]

Does West Virginia get seated immediately also? I thought it was just Delaware & Illinois.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm assuming that all special elections to replace vacancies that are NOT Class 3 seats get seated immediately, just like with Scott Brown replacing Ted Kennedy.

Illinois does not count because that seat is up this year anyway, so Burris was finishing Obama's term.

Byrd of West Virginia held a Class 1 seat that is not up again until 2012.

Biden of Delaware held a Class 2 seat that is not up until 2014.

Therefore, the incumbents were only appointed by the Governor until the special election could be held. The seat is then filled immediately by the winner, pending certification and the Senate's approval. We saw how Reid tried to stall the seating of Scott Brown until after some key votes, but was forced to back down amidst strong opposition.

The winners of West Virginia and Delaware will get to participate in the lame-duck session, while the others will have to wait for the next Congress to begin in January.

-PJ

[kitchen]

Possibly Colorado, too. Bennet was appointed, so by rights he should withdraw if Buck wins.

[reader25]

Why aren't Republicans asking the one question which will have the greatest impact on their success. They all should be asking the question:

ARE YOU BETTER OFF TODAY THAN YOU WERE 2 YEARS AGO?

Simple question, priceless answer!

[mac_truck]

Illinois does not count because that seat is up this year anyway, so Burris was finishing Obama's term.

Illinois is holding a special election to determine who will be taking Burris place between November & January. Both primary winners are also on the special election ballot. This arrangement was decided by a judge. Read about it HERE

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks. I missed that nuance.

-PJ

[mac_truck]

I think its called the Blago exception. ;^)