No, you are not. Your central contention is that Ex-Im Bank need not have loaned the money to Pemex in exchange for agreements to hire Americans, use American firms, and buy American equipment, because Pemex would have done so on its own, anyway. "We are the only game in town," and all that. It appears that we are not.
So what game are you playing?
The game I am playing now is called Clue. Like, get one.