As part of a pretrial plea agreement, perhaps. But, once convicted, he's toast as there is NO WAY they're going to offer some kind of suspended sentence in this case, especially considering how public Lakin has been in his contempt. He didn't just disobey command, he made a spectacle of it. Commands don't like spectacles.
For what it's worth, I think the chances of a plea agreement in this case are precisely 0.00%. I don't think it would accepted if offered, and I don't think there is ANY chance of one being offered.
Once again, I have to agree with your analysis. I certainly won’t be crying any crocodile tears if he comes by in the little white van on his was to the Disciplinary Barracks.