I think he'll get more than 90-days, and well less than 365. I've gone back and looked at all the trials that have been held since the start of Operation Enduring Freedom for service members missing movement to the theater of operation(s). They have all resulted in at least some confinement - most for a period of 180 days (and a few longer). I find it VERY difficult to believe that the jury panel will be anymore forgiving to an 0-6, than they have been generally to an E-3. It's my personal experience that jury panels are typically less forgiving to officers when the charge included Failure tho Obey.
The good news for Lakin is that should he be confined for a year or longer, his avenues of appeal to the Supremes increases because he'd be eligible (perhaps) for a habeas appeal with a confinement exceeding a year.
I think dismissal and complete forfeiture are as close to a sure-thing as you can get.
You’ve done a very good analysis and may well be right. If officers are ordered into confinement, they go to Leavenworth to serve it, even if its just one day. I’ve seen several of them in that condition and they aren’t happy campers.
The closest analogy is CPT Yolanda Huet-Vaughan from the 1st Gulf War who ended up exactly as you predict in this case if my memory serves. It remains possible, however, that LTC Lakin will be allowed to resign.