• Th e estimated $753 billion cumulative increase in personal health spending between 2010 and 2019 represents an increase of 3.3% over the status quo projection.
• Between 2010 and 2019, cumulative federal spending on subsidies for those who obtain insurance through the Exchange would be $445 billion. Approximately 53% of the 25 million people purchasing insurance through the Exchange in 2019 would receive a federal subsidy.
• Medicaid spending is projected to increase by $559 billion between 2010 and 2019, a 21% increase over the projected trend in the status quo.
• Penalty payments for those not complying with the mandates would total $75 billion from individuals and $108 billion from employers between 2013 and 2019.
• We project that, in 2019, average insurance premiums in the large group (employer) market will be at least 2% lower than projected in the status quo.
• We project some increase in insurance premiums for the most common nongroup policies. The increase is higher in the first few years after the reform (8%) and becomes negligible by 2019, with an average increase over the whole period of about 4%. When the market stabilizes (2016–2019), the premiums will be about 2% higher than would have been observed in the nongroup market without the policy change. The presence of subsidies will further soften the effect of this increase on the population.