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To: TheThirdRuffian

I know it seems trite to say that I read a book about it. Though come to think of it, that was more geology than well engineering, but that was discussed at chapter length.

What bothers me is the statistical irregularity of two such incidents within the Gulf occurring within such a short periodicity. Certainly possible, yet I´d think it still a spike in the curve.


497 posted on 09/02/2010 4:37:53 PM PDT by onedoug
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To: onedoug
What bothers me is the statistical irregularity of two such incidents within the Gulf occurring within such a short periodicity.

The world is filled with meaningless statistical fluctuations; the human brain is evolutionarily designed to find patterns; overall, it's something that greatly contributes to our survival, but a side-effect is that we're really good at seeing patterns that don't exist.

If, on average, 6 events (pick anything) happen in a year, they're not going to be spaced 2 months apart. You're going to go 4-5 months without any at some point, then you'll have 2 in a month - for no reason whatsoever. Without an understanding of statistics and probability (which I think needs to be taught in high schools) people don't really understand how "normal" an irregular pattern of events are.

Among the dumbest cliches I see repeated here and elsewhere on assorte boards is "I don't believe in coincidences." The world is FILLED with absolutely MEANINGLESS coincidences, day after day.

504 posted on 09/02/2010 7:34:03 PM PDT by Strategerist
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