Posted on 08/30/2010 9:57:30 AM PDT by SandRat
If you’re a political junkie, you’re in for a treat.
Everyone else might want to bury their heads in the sand until Nov. 2.
The contest between Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and Republican challenger Jesse Kelly is bound to get heated if Kelly’s months-long slugfest with former state Sen. Jonathan Paton is any indication.
Kelly knocked off Paton by about 10 percentage points Tuesday after a flurry of punches from both sides: Kelly accusing the comparatively moderate Paton of being “no Ronald Reagan” and Paton saying the political newcomer is not seasoned enough to take on a two-term congresswoman.
The gloves come off as the stakes get higher. Pundits and politicos have pegged Congressional District 8 as a competitive race which means Southern Arizona should be getting a lot of attention over the next few months, especially if polling shows Kelly ahead or within striking distance of Giffords.
And the back and forth has already started. Just a day after Kelly grabbed the brass ring from Paton, Giffords’ team was already out with an advertisement putting the screws to Kelly for remarks he made about wanting to privatize or “phase out” Social Security. Kelly’s camp hit right back, saying Giffords was trying to distract voters from a sputtering economic recovery.
Expect more of the same. Although Web sites like The New York Times and the Cook Political Report project Giffords holding on to her seat by a slim margin, subpar approval ratings for a Democratic president and Congress along with Giffords’ votes on hot button issues such as the health-care reform bill and the federal stimulus package have Republicans thinking this could be their best shot at unseating the incumbent.
In short, Republicans smell opportunity and Giffords isn’t taking her seat for granted.
Expect District 8 to be a bellwether for Republican hopes at seizing a majority in the House. If late October arrives and Giffords, a popular congresswoman with a strong record of constituent service, looks like she’s toast, expect a Republican landslide. Especially if Giffords is losing to Kelly, a political rookie and 2004 transplant without her deep ties to the area.
Kelly did a good job turning his perceived weaknesses into strengths against Paton during the primary. The 29-year-old Marine veteran hammered the former LD30 legislator relentlessly for being an “establishment politician” and for select votes in the state Legislature that Kelly said aided Democrats.
Kelly’s message: Republicans need to elect hardcore Republicans. And they want fresh faces, too.
Newcomers doing it
The results of the Kelly-Paton contest dovetail nicely with high profile Senate races around the country in which relative newcomers knocked off more established Republicans by appealing to fired-up base voters who are angry about health care reform, the stimulus package, the Democratic Congress and President Obama.
In Nevada, Tea Party favorite and arch-conservative Sharron Angle knocked off presumptive front-runner and former state Sen. Sue Lowden in a contentious campaign by running to her right. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul beat out Secretary of State Trey Grayson in Kentucky.
In each case, relatively untested candidates beat out the “safer” option by running as the true conservative.
Conservative enough?
The question is: Can those candidates win in November?
The general election will be a test of the GOP’s will to bank hard right. Angle and Paul are already locked in tight races that looked like guaranteed victories for Republicans before they were nominated.
At the Democrat’s election night party at Hotel Congress in Tucson, the crowd reportedly cheered when news arrived that Kelly had sewed up the nomination against Paton.
You can guess what they all were thinking: Kelly is too conservative to beat Giffords in District 8, which is famously independent, sending an openly gay Republican to Congress and electing Giffords twice in a row despite having more registered Republicans than Democrats.
It seems clear that Kelly is indeed Giffords’ preferred opponent. The Democrats dumped money into the race in the form of attack mailers against Paton, hoping Republicans would opt for Kelly. Paton argued as much during the primary, saying Democrats were openly hoping for Kelly.
Now, Democrats are going to get their wish and they are wise not to underestimate Kelly, who surprised a lot of people by rallying to beat the better-funded, better-established Paton with a corps of enthusiastic volunteers and a winning manner on the campaign trail.
It remains to be seen whether Kelly can fire up a room of undecideds and independents the same way he exhilarates staunchly conservative crowds by ripping into liberalism and big government with the aplomb of a talk radio host.
Giffords, meanwhile, is already emphasizing a big tent, saying that she wants to win over “Republican ranchers, independent small businessmen, and Democratic Air Force veterans.”
Giffords has proven she can win in an ideologically diverse district.
To beat her, Kelly is going to have to convince voters they don’t have to agree with him 100 percent to know he’s got their back, too, and that he would be a better Congressman to boot.
And that’s the trick, right?
Look at who Gabby is pandering to and as in the underline Ticking off Sierra Vista an Army Post.
PING
Kelly is the real deal. He’ll beat her like a bongo.
How seasoned does one need to be to not read legislation before voting on it?
Jesse was seasoned as a Marine read the SOP, the FRAGO, the OPORD, the TM, the FM, etc. ... He knows. Gabby is, to be polite, out-to-lunch.
Not a word about how Obummer’s lawsuit against Arizona will likely affect RAT fortunes in this district. Figures.
Like a rented mule. lol
She wont be getting my vote after that assinine move with Obamacare
She might have deep ties --- her latest talking point, as if that gives her superiority -- but she either lives full-time in Houston now or just spends most of her time there. Nice representation we have.
I am waiting for Giffords to pull the Jewish card.
Gabrielle Giffords has reached page 1 of her Liberal Attack Manual, scare seniors about Social Security.
Here is the truth: Jesse Kelly wants to protect Social Security for current retirees. We will fully honor our commitments for those now receiving benefits. Those who have been paying into the system should also receive their full benefits.
Jesse will protect current retirees while giving
future generations ownership of their retirement accounts.
We need a long-term solution that ensures funds paid into the system will be there when people retire. Younger workers should have the choice of allocating a portion of their contribution into a personal retirement account in their name. Individuals could choose from a range of appropriate retirement options: a blend of guaranteed savings accounts, investment grade bonds, and blue chip equities. Americans should have the same options that Giffords, as a member of Congress, has through the Federal Thrift Savings Plan ( https://www.tsp.gov/index.shtml ).
Representative Giffords has no plan to deal with the long-term challenges facing our current retirement system. Giffords’ failure to take action is pushing the Social Security program closer to collapse. We must not allow Giffords to bankrupt the system. Southern Arizona deserves a representative who is willing to take on tough issues and find good solutions. Jesse Kelly is that person.
Gabby has got to go!
To the unemployment line with her!
I can see Nov from my house.
For a second, I thought this was a match between Kathy Lee Gifford and Kelly Ripa.
One track mind I guess.
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