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Over Time, a Gay Marriage Groundswell (NYT Uses Its Crystal Ball)
New York Times ^ | 8/21/10 | Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Lax, & Justin Philips

Posted on 08/27/2010 8:57:30 AM PDT by zort

Gay marriage is not going away as a highly emotional, contested issue. Proposition 8, the California ballot measure that bans same-sex marriage, has seen to that, as it winds its way through the federal courts.

But perhaps the public has reached a turning point.

A CNN poll this month found that a narrow majority of Americans supported same-sex marriage--the first poll to find majority support. Other poll results did not go that far, but still, on average, showed that support for gay marriage had risen to 45 percent or more (with the rest either opposed or undecided).

That’s a big change from 1996, when Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act. At that time, only 25 percent of Americans said that gay and lesbian couples should have the right to marry, according to an average of national polls....

According to our research, as recently as 2004, same-sex marriage did not have majority support in any state. By 2008, three states had crossed the 50 percent line.*

Today, 17 states are over that line (more if you consider the CNN estimate correct that just over 50 percent of the country supports gay marriage)....

This trend will continue. Nationally, a majority of people under age 30 support same-sex marriage. And this is not because of overwhelming majorities found in more liberal states that skew the national picture: our research shows that a majority of young people in almost every state support it. As new voters come of age, and as their older counterparts exit the voting pool, it’s likely that support will increase, pushing more states over the halfway mark.

State figures are based on a statistical technique has been used to generate state estimates from national polls....

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bostonglobe; culturewar; downourthroats; gaymarriage; homosexualagenda; incrementalism; inourfaces; lavendermafia; margaretmarshall; nytimesagenda; pravdamedia; romney; samesexmarriage
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To: OldDeckHand

For someone who is so hurt over the words “You’re not a conservative”, you sure like to try to dish it out.
So why try?
Being that thin skinned means you’re only going to be MORE hurt afterwards.


41 posted on 08/27/2010 11:54:28 AM PDT by Darksheare (I shook hands with Sheryl Crow and all I got was Typhus and a single sheet of toilet paper.)
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To: Russ

I don’t care if 99.999% of the people support gay marriage. I don’t, won’t and never will...”

Same here.

This poll is suspect:
WHOM they ack questions, as well as exactly HOW the question is phrased is key.

If I ask 500 horse owners if they like horses, I have totally skewed the poll.


42 posted on 08/27/2010 11:54:41 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: Darksheare
"Being that thin skinned means you’re only going to be MORE hurt afterwards."

Is the conclusion someone would come to if they were obtuse.

You think I'm thin-skinned and I think you're obtuse. I believe that has been established. Do you have anything additional to add to the dialogue, other than my alleged thin-skinnedness?

43 posted on 08/27/2010 12:00:25 PM PDT by OldDeckHand
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To: swarthyguy

Some people do enjoy being abusive.


44 posted on 08/27/2010 12:08:18 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If Bam is the answer, the question was stupid.)
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To: DJ MacWoW

Thanks for steering the thread back on course.

Abuse in gay marriage? NO!!!

And after the groundswell, the rip tide of divorce.


45 posted on 08/27/2010 12:11:29 PM PDT by swarthyguy (KIDS! Deficit, Debt,Taxes!Pfft Lookit the bright side of our legacy -Ummrika is almost SmokFrei!)
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To: 185JHP; 230FMJ; AFA-Michigan; Abathar; Agitate; Albion Wilde; Aleighanne; Alexander Rubin; ...
Homosexual Agenda and Moral Absolutes Ping!

Freepmail wagglebee to subscribe or unsubscribe from the homosexual agenda or moral absolutes ping list.

FreeRepublic homosexual agenda keyword search
[ Add keyword homosexual agenda to flag FR articles to this ping list ]

FreeRepublic moral absolutes keyword search
[ Add keyword moral absolutes to flag FR articles to this ping list ]

Oookay, so the NYT, which a very few years ago had at least 75% of its staff admitted homosexuals, is now Nostradamos? Predicts the future in favor of "Perversion Wins"? Anyone who places any credence in this propaganda is either a spineless, gutless coward eunuch, or on their side. Trying to instill defeatism in others is a nasty coward's way of fighting. I see a lot of it lately on FR.

If a person actually has conservative principles but is constantly telling others stuff like "It's over, it's hopeless, they'll win, get used to it" - they're as bad as that coward in "Saving Private Ryan" who refused to deliver the ammo and caused so many deaths. Cowards can go to hell, as far as I'm concerned.

And those who are not the cowards with supposed principles are just regular leftists (aka "pragmatists" and "realists" - btw, so well described in Screwtape and "That Hideous Strength") who want to instill fear and defeatism in conservatives so their side can win.

It's that simple. Read my tagline by C.S.Lewis. He was right.

46 posted on 08/27/2010 12:13:26 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: swarthyguy

There was another thread yesterday about a lesbian that killed another woman over her ex. I didn’t get if it was a love triangle but it does show the emotional instability of homosexual relationships. Homosexuals are emotionally unstable. I have a brother that is “gay”. I spent time with him and his friends. They are emotional children.


47 posted on 08/27/2010 12:17:45 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If Bam is the answer, the question was stupid.)
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To: little jeremiah
If a person actually has conservative principles but is constantly telling others stuff like "It's over, it's hopeless, they'll win, get used to it" - they're as bad as that coward in "Saving Private Ryan" who refused to deliver the ammo and caused so many deaths. Cowards can go to hell, as far as I'm concerned.

I agree. FR is not just a forum. It is an activist site. Part of it's purpose is to counteract the left's message. Those that give in to defeatism and call it reality are counterproductive and aiding the left's agenda. FR's message should be "fight or shut up".

48 posted on 08/27/2010 12:21:30 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If Bam is the answer, the question was stupid.)
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To: zort; kroll

You’re both wrong, of course. NAMBLA used to march in “Gay Pride parades until the organizers realized it made bad propaganda.

Plus, eliminating - no lowering, but eliminating - all (as in “ALL”) age of consent laws was on the original platform of “gay” rights, but they had to soften that up (for now). It’s their goal, though.

So you are both 100% wrong. Not surprising, though.


49 posted on 08/27/2010 12:24:36 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: Darksheare

It’s not that he’s insulted; it’s just that he isn’t a conservative, knows it, and doesn’t want to be totally outed and banned.


50 posted on 08/27/2010 12:27:58 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: little jeremiah

Exactly right and well said. Those who support homosexual “marriage” would like those who oppose it to believe that it is inescapable. Why bother to do anything to prevent it if it’s going to happen anyway?

We are at a very precarious place in our country’s history. Let us hope that those who come after us do not condemn our actions, or lack thereof.


51 posted on 08/27/2010 12:28:43 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: DJ MacWoW

The devil in Screwtape also called himself and fellow devils realists; also in That Hideous Strength, there were many “realists”.

Funny, “realists” are always the black hats! They aren’t realists at all, it’s sort of like homosexuals calling themselves “gay”, or if necrophiliacs called themselves “livelies”.


52 posted on 08/27/2010 12:31:00 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: trisham

It’s like the (very bad and horrible) advice that used to sometimes be given to women in the event of rape - “Just lie down and enjoy it since it’s inevitable”.


53 posted on 08/27/2010 12:32:45 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: little jeremiah

There’s that, yes.


54 posted on 08/27/2010 12:36:52 PM PDT by Darksheare (I shook hands with Sheryl Crow and all I got was Typhus and a single sheet of toilet paper.)
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To: little jeremiah

I doubt they could say that today, considering the diseases one can acquire.


55 posted on 08/27/2010 12:43:10 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: little jeremiah
Yup. I remember that. It's been awhile since I've read it. It's here. Someplace. lol
56 posted on 08/27/2010 12:43:10 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If Bam is the answer, the question was stupid.)
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To: DJ MacWoW

What, “livelies”? A friend of mine said that. That homosexuals calling themselves “gay” is like necrophiliacs calling themselves “livelies”.


57 posted on 08/27/2010 12:59:14 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: trisham

I think they still sometimes say “don’t fight since you may get killed”. Not sure what the current advice is. Run and scream and blow a whistle? And don’t wear a ponytail?


58 posted on 08/27/2010 1:01:07 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: little jeremiah

LOL. No. The Screwtape Letters. I read The Great Divorce too.


59 posted on 08/27/2010 1:06:31 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (If Bam is the answer, the question was stupid.)
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To: DJ MacWoW

I wish I had a complete set of his books. And a new computer. And a pony.


60 posted on 08/27/2010 1:09:15 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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