Internal Poll Finds Canseco Leading Rodriguez In Texas (TX-23)

CQ Politics ^ | August 23, 2010 | Tricia Miller

[Bevo]

Internal Poll Finds Canseco Leading Rodriguez In Texas By Tricia Miller | August 23, 2010 7:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

A new poll taken for his campaign shows Republican businessman Quico Canseco holding his own against Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in west Texas' 23rd district.

The OnMessage poll of 400 likely voters showed Canseco with 43 percent to Rodriguez' 37 percent. Conducted Aug. 15-16, the poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

For Canseco's campaign it was an improvement over the results of a similar OnMessage poll from mid-May when the two candidates were both within the margin of error.

A lot has happened in the race in the past three months. In early July, the San Antonio Express-News reported that Canseco's properties had been charged with $715,000 in liens. He said the liens had to do with disputes between tenants. A few days later the conservative website Breitbart.TV posted a video of Rodriguez reacting strongly to a constituent asking him to "tell the truth" about costs associated with President Barack Obama's health care law. Rodriguez later apologized.

Earlier this month Canseco was promoted to the top tier of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program.

At the end of June, Canseco was at a financial disadvantage. The challenger had raised $1 million and still had $453,000 on hand, while the incumbent had raised $1.64 million and had $702,000 on hand.

The poll also found a 17-point advantage for Republicans in the generic ballot, a leap from the five-point advantage OnMessage found in May. Rodriguez' net favorable rating fell from 13 points to one point in the same time period.

Canseco is already one step closer to coming to Congress than he was in 2008 when he lost the Republican primary. He won a runoff against former CIA official Will Hurd in April. He lost his first run for Congress in another district in 2004.

Rodriguez first came to the House after he won a special election in 1997, but he lost his seat in a neighboring district in 2004 after mid-decade redistricting. In 2006 the Democrat defeated Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla in a December runoff. Last year he won reelection with 56 percent of the vote.

In addition to Rodriguez and Canseco, three third-party candidates will be on the ballot this November.

CQ-Roll Call rates this race Likely Democratic.

[Bevo]

This is a critical seat that could help determine whether Republicans can win back the House. Lets hope Mr. Canseco keeps expanding his lead.

[Bevo]

And here’s a refresher on Nancy Pelosi lapdog Ciro Rodriguez, the democrat who currently holds the seat:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jENE5Nh6qIs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu0do73cj80

[rfp1234]

Even Jose Canseco would be an improvement over any Donkey.

[Retired Greyhound]

And both are linked to steroids and Madonna.

[dfwgator]

For you Rangers fans

Leads

[InterceptPoint]

CQ-Roll Call rates this race Likely Democratic.
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This is what drives me crazy. Here we have an article showing the Republican Canseco going from Canseco 45% - Rodriguez 48% in May to an August poll showing Canseco with a 43% to 37% lead and they rate the race as LIKELY D!!!!! This race has been a Toss Up for 4 months and CQP refuses to acknowledge that obvious fact. And this in a district that traditionally votes Republican in presidential elections (R+6).

Are they STUPID or BIASED or just LAZY?

[La Lydia]

How awesome it would be to defeat crooked, stupid ol’ Ciro. A link to the soundtrack, Sacaremos ese Buey de la Barranca...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUq6ZaeR5tg&feature=search

[Bevo]

http://www.cansecoforcongress.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_23rd_congressional_district

[La Lydia]

Did you like the tune?

[ScottinVA]

Good to know. That’d be an upset win if Ciro goes down.

[ScottinVA]

In addition to Rodriguez and Canseco, three third-party candidates will be on the ballot this November.

Any of those 3rd party types disgruntled GOPers wanting to take votes away from Canseco?

[fortheDeclaration]

You always know the poll is a bad one for the Democrat when you can’t find out which Party each one belongs to.

[fortheDeclaration]

The OnMessage poll of 400 likely voters showed Canseco with 43 percent to Rodriguez' 37 percent

And yet they still consider this a 'likely Democrat' seat!

This is why the GOP gains are going to be far greater then the polls are telling us.

[TexasGunRunner]

This district is next door to mine (Lamar Smith’s)...actually intertwined is more like it.

Anyway, I donated to Quico Canseco. Ciro has got to go!!

I believe some of this district used to have a good congressman, Republican Henry Bonilla, until they jacked around with the districts under threat of the courts.