Andy Beal Conjectures Harsh Market Ahead

Forbes 'blogs ^ | March 1, 2010 | Nathan Vardi

[SunkenCiv]

Lots of people claim to have seen the financial crisis coming, but few actually banked on it. Andy Beal did. He virtually shut down his Beal Bank between 2004 and 2007. When the financial crisis hit, he started buying... So what is Beal's current outlook?

1. We are back in a credit bubble due to the Fed and easy money. Other than failed banks, Beal has again nearly stopped buying assets.
2. ...economy is being supported by zero interest rates and deficit spending. None of this is sustainable, and when it goes away, things will get worse. The consumer can't come to the rescue.
3. Unemployment will remain at current levels for several years
4. If [the feds] bail out California they have to bail out every state
5. ...short-term deflation is very likely for the next year or two
6. Commercial real estate is headed for trouble
7. ...To drive interest rates to zero may stimulate the economy, but it is just stealing from savers
8. ...Stocks are currently being supported by zero interest rates
9. insured deposits might become a major source of lending again like they were 20 years ago
   
   Beal is a self-described libertarian kind of guy. But I have found him first and foremost to be an independent thinker. While he can be very critical of the government's intervention in the economy, he doesn't speak in absolutes.
   
   For example: Beal thinks the federal bailout of money-market funds was necessary. But that makes his observations all the more sincere. "The goal of currencies used to be to provide a store of value," says Beal. "Once the government took that over it had an obligation to fulfill that role, and the fact that they can use that role to steal from Peter to pay Paul doesn't make it right."

[SunkenCiv]

beal conjecture site:freerepublic.com

Google

[SunkenCiv]

Clever choice of headline. But anyway, a sort of op-ed from March.

[The Magical Mischief Tour]

...economy is being supported by zero interest rates and deficit spending. None of this is sustainable, and when it goes away, things will get worse. The consumer can't come to the rescue.

Needs to be repeated!

[blam]

THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP….. (It Will Be A Lot Worse)

[JoeProBono]

Dallas-Fort Worth billionaire Andy Beal filed illegal 2001 tax returns, judge rules

08:45 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 4, 2010
By ERIC TORBENSON / The Dallas Morning News

North Texas billionaire Andy Beal filed illegal tax returns for 2001, but the government cannot collect owed taxes because it failed to act in time, a federal judge has ruled.

Beal, who owns Plano-based Beal Financial Corp., claimed investment losses of $153.6 million to lower his taxable income for 2001 to $8.6 million – 95 percent less than what his actual income was, according to the government’s case against him.

Beal and his tax accountants had used a foreign currency swap through Deutsche Bank to claim the losses, but the complex transaction wasn’t allowed, according to U.S. Magistrate Judge Don Bush, who ruled Monday.

Messages to Beal and his tax attorney weren’t returned Wednesday evening.

[SunkenCiv]

See, being a number theory hobbyist pays off again!