I don't think you have an appreciation for how straightforward and pedestrian Lakin's court-martial will be. Any trial counsel so new his shoes aren't even broken in, could secure a conviction in this case. The questions of law that must be decided can only be described as remedial. And the facts speak for themselves - Lakin has made a videotape announcing that he didn't intend to deploy, and then he made a videotape confirming he didn't deploy.
I am uncertain whether this President is equipped to play back channel politics at this level."
There are no "back channel politics" in play here. Here's a clue - the military to include the military justice system was here LONG before Barack Obama came to town, and they'll be there LONG after Barack Obama leaves town. There are no political appointees in the military justice system, at all.
You seem to opine that there may be some "grand design" at play here by Lakin's civilian defense team. There isn't - at least there isn't any competent grand scheme. Lakin's primary civilian counsel had as close to ZERO military law experience as you can get. His own bio says he's tried "dozens" of cases - really? Dozens? He has also never been the attorney of record in any court-martial proceeding, nor has he ever been the attorney of record in any military appeal.
Lakin's attorney said this when speaking to WND a month or so ago about the chances of getting access to Obama's birth records...
"“This is a criminal case,” he noted, with a possible punishment of several years in jail. “In order for a criminal defendant to defend himself in a criminal court he has to be given the opportunity to put on a defense.”
Any competent attorney who has just limited experience in military law knows that this just isn't the case. That paragraph tells me everything I need to know about Lakin's lawyers - his civilian lawyers. He does have a very capable military lawyer detailed to him, but Lakin has made it clear that his civilian counsel is first chair.
Lakin's best hope on appeal is something based primarily on an ineffective assistance of counsel scheme - also, he might have an opportunity for a malpractice claim, should he come out the other side of this absent the ability to practice medicine for a period of time.