Let’s be honest about this “50% increase,” shall we? They’re talking of going to 45,000 units from 30,000 units.
In terms of auto model shipments, this production figure is half or less of what Toyota is planning on shipping for the Prius.
For reference, the perennial best-selling auto in the US is the Ford F-150. The F-150 sold nearly 180,000 units last year, which was a pretty grim year for auto sales.
I contend that there is a limited market for the super-high MPG vehicles at this time, so the Volt is selling into a market where the competition ships a product with a lower price, as good or better overall MPG, and not from a company that has PR issues with quality and government ownership.
The biggest problem for the Volt is the price. The average car sales price in the US is about $28K. With the $7,500 tax credit, it is still well above the average purchase price of a car in the US - and most importantly, it is well above the price of proven high-mileage autos like the Toyota Prius.
The consumer, outside those who are obsessed with the idea of a plug-in vehicle (ie, the “ZEV” crowd), is concerned with the bottom line. Regardless of high or low fuel prices, the Prius is a bargain compared to the Volt. A small turbo-diesel car is an even better bargain. So the Volt has a problem from the get-go: it has set a price point, even with the subsidies (generous subsidies, I might add, as well as the tax credit for purchase) on the high side of the average. The Prius is priced closer to the average, when loaded, and when stripped is below the average auto sale price point.
For $37K (ie, the Volt with tax credit), I expect one hell of a lot out of a car, either in capability or luxury. The Volt delivers neither. It is a better sized sedan for big guys like me than the Prius, but that’s about it. Take away the tax credit, and I’d be expecting even more out of the Volt.