Posted on 07/24/2010 8:54:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
37 were favorable to the Republicans
7 were favorable to the Democrats
There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
37 were favorable to the Republicans
7 were favorable to the Democrats
FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.
There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
37 were favorable to the Republicans
7 were favorable to the Democrats
FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.
Thanks for the ping
What’s up with NY25? The murmurs are that it can be a GOP pick up. I cannot find and polls for this race. You got anything?
Thanks for the ping!
Right now our "Experts" are not looking very favorably at NY-25 but we have seen no polling yet. Typically the "Experts" will revise their opinions on a race after they see a couple of polls that look like a trend and appear to be legit. Polls by the candidates are always worth questioning but in many cases that is all we get to see at least early on in the election cycle. If the NY-25 race is really competitive it will show up in the polling.
BTTT
See ya on the next ping.
There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
37 were favorable to the Republicans
7 were favorable to the Democrats
Thanks for the good info.
For the second time, please take me off this ping list I never asked to be on.
One more ping from you and I can only assume that you are trolling.
Oh me of little faith.
The repubs have a way of snatching defeat from the hands of victory.
As an example..Elaine Marshall D,( an old bat BTW) is running against the incumbent Senator Richard Burr R. here in NC.
For at least a month she has been running TV spots tying Burr to Big Oil/BP/ oil spill. Very effective IMHO.
Burr has yet to run any ads let alone a rebuttal.
By the time he gets around to it , it will be too late. People will have made up their minds.
I think Burr is going down this election.
You said it.
This year they have an ideal opportunity to nationalize the election. Far, far more ideal than even 1994. What with all the *very* unpopular polices of the regime -- stimulus, takeovers, health care, financial reform, Arizona lawsuit....
Yet, I see no indication that they plan to nationalize the election. Hopefully I'm wrong on this.
Thanks InterceptPoint for the excellent compilation and efforts. We all need to get as involved as we can in these critical House races!
If you ask me - WA 1 is IN PLAY:
http://www.redstate.com/bot2495/2010/07/13/meet-james-watkins/
Look at those numbers - Indies supporting James Watkins by 35% in mid July - those numbers will continue to trend. I think Watkins has a SERIOUS shot here.
http://www.watkinsforcongress.com/
Thanks for the good work and good news I.P.
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
Here is the cumulative probability distribution of the simulation:
On the Senate side, there was little movement in the Rasmussen polls this week. Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
-PJ
One more ping from you and I can only assume that you are trolling.
Trust me. We're not trolling. We just missed your request. Sorry about that.
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