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Looking at this, it is hard to imagine a sea change type of election like we saw in 1994.

A couple of points:

We are only half way through the Primary season so we have a situation where for about 1/2 the races we don't know who the candidates are. You really cannot accurately poll those districts and nobody is doing so. We are running blind at this point and so are the "Experts" - they are just giving it their best shot based on past history and whatever gossip they pick up. When we start getting serious polls in September/October then we will see whether we can repeat 1994 again. I think we can but we aren't there yet.

We are only half way through the Primary season so we have a situation where for about 1/2 the races we don't know who the candidates are.

True, a lot of these races are going to solidify after the primaries. You have my district (Mi-7) listed as a toss up but we're a traditionally GOP district. Once were down to just GOP vs Dem i think it will lean pretty firmly in the direction of the GOP.

Also there's the fact that you can't judge the feeling on the ground or read every comment made by the candidates. The democrat has admitted that his chances or reelection in this district are not great without Obama on the ticket. Also his fundraising appears to be primarily outside the district so I don't think he's getting much support from the actual voters.

I'm not trying to be critical, just trying to explain the uncontrolable limitations of your analysis for those who may be discouraged.