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RE :”Eighteen months in, the Obama presidency is in as dreadful shape as one can imagine. He’ll almost certainly lose the House in the fall elections; and now it’s looking like he could lose the theoretically impregnable Democratic majority in the Senate. What’s more, he has, to an astonishing degree, been unable to communicate even the remotest sense of who he is to the nation: a middle-of-the-roader, by any estimation, and yet a majority of the country thinks he’s a “socialist.”

This is some fine gloating about Obama’s failures trying to get his agenda accomplished, and especially having it un-appreciated by the voters who have turned on his Hope and Change in droves. I enjoy doing it myself, it's about time we got to see the Rats get what they deserve.

Yet, the title is misleading. Obama may be finished pushing sweeping partison bills through congress(short some taxes and spending increases in the lame duck session), but this doesnt mean he will lose the 2012 election.

Next year the political deck of cards is shuffled again. A big win by Republicans could mean that voters start expecting something from them again. Obama will use that. Maybe democrats will force a vote on the deficit commissions tax recommendations in the lame duct session so Obama can try to blame the deficits on Republicans opposition. So far Boehner has come up with 1) repeal unspecified parts of Obama-care, 2) cut social security. Not encouraging. Didnt he promote TARP1?

Then we have a possibility of an ugly Republican primary : 1) Romney, 2) Huckabee, 3) Palin, 4) Newt ??? (I am getting ill thinking about it) Maybe this year will be the best year for Republicans. We cant say now. But Obama is not finished yet.

All good points. I think that an extended primary could actually help the GOP, though.

The dems definitely benefitted from Obama and Clinton in 2008. They sucked up all the attention and coverage into June. No one cared about McCain or the GOP primary.

In 2012 you could have the reverse. Everyone will be paying attention to and covering the Republicans. All our voters will be excited and interested and involved in the primary and the dem voters won’t have anything to do. No one will be paying attention to Obama. He’ll be overlooked. Unless he does something smart like have Biden announce he’s stepping down in early 2012 and that Hillary will replace him as VP.

But if the GOP is getting all the coverage in winter/spring 2012 I think that will help them in the fall. I think it definitely hurt McCain that he won the nomination on Super Tuesday and had another 4 months of doing nothing. Obama on the other hand was campaigning nonstop in VA, OH, FL, IN, NC, PA, etc... I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he won all those states in the fall. That IN and VA were states the dems did nothing in. All that extra time and money spent campaigning helped him.

Maybe our 2012 candidates doing the same in PA, MI, OH, FL, etc... will lead to a similar result.