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If the oil is reaching the surface around the backside of the casing, wouldn’t that indicate a significant casing breach at the lowest levels? The flow path of the product has been eroding and flushing huge amounts of sedimentary soils up to the ocean bottom. Is there enough mud on the planet to effectively fill this void and choke off the flow? I appreciate your hard-earned insights on this matter

NO. It is flowing around the backside (i.e. outside of the casing) and this is a result of a bad cement job at the level of the production strata. The top of the casing most assuredly no longer has integrity. This would be at the level of the casing hanger that is just below the BOP stack.

Yes the formation will be somewhat eroded but when you consdier the flow rate is 69 barrels a minute (based on worst case estimates of 100,000 a day production) the erosion will not be that major around the casing. However, any constrictins in the BOP stack and around the casing hanger will not have any integrity. High speed sand will cut steel like butter given sufficient velocity. In effect at this moment there are no constrictions in the hole. This is basically open flow. Yes there is enough kill mud to do this. If BP hits the right zone in the production formation (and they will) they can kill the well. If the downhole casing is compromised they will need to kill it twice i.e. oustide the casing and inside the casing.