But here's my thing. McCain is leading in the polls in AZ. I want to know *why* isn't Hayworth leading McCain by double digits? And before any of the usual suspects scream Sarah Palin, stop.
Tea Party candidates have done remarkable well across the country. Yet, here, with an incredible opportunity to unseat one of the most liberal republicans ever (esp. one so reviled by the Tea Party), Hayworth is failing. And failing big time.
I asked this question before and no one had a reasonable answer: why isn't Hayworth resonating with the people of AZ? I don't know much about his past when he rep'd AZ so I'm truly curious. From what I've seen in this campaign cycle, whoever is advising him, etc. is simply lost.
In the end, if Hayworth loses, perhaps the question everyone should be asking is, was he the best candidate to take on McCain?
Of course, one of the obvious things that gets overlooked is the simple fact that perhaps (as sad as it sounds), the majority in AZ like McCain. *shudders*.
I'm not one of the "usual suspects". I was one of Palin's biggest fans and I still think she does a great deal of good for the country, but if you think her endorsement of McCain didn't make a bad difference, you should consider 3 facts.
1) Rasmussen did a poll before JD had even agreed to run and found him in a statistical tie with McCain.
2) Ras did another poll shortly after JD announced and (IIRC) it was 47 McCain to 42 for JD. What I remember for sure is there was only a five point spread despite the fact that McCain had been running nasty and dishonest ads from before JD announced.
3) Then Sarah Palin endorsed McCain and made a campaign recording which is still played on the radio. McCain JUMPED in the polls and the spread widened.
Now I have not written Palin off by any means, but disappointment is a gentle word for what I feel when I hear those ads. I know and acknowledge that she stopped compaigning for the evil old rat very soon after her few appearances for him, but the recorded ads go on and they do a huge amount of damage precisely because Palin IS such a powerful force and is so widely admired by Conservatives.
FWIW she also made a statement that if JD won the primary she would support him in the general, but we don't hear that very often. JD has pointed it out, but the enemedia will NEVER mention that.
So even though I'm still hoping for the best with Palin, it's wrong to say it didn't matter or make a difference that she endorsed McCain. It was and remains critical.
The good news is that Rasmussen said that even though McCain currently polls a good bit ahead of JD, McCain's numbers are roughly what Specter's were in his primary race until shortly before he lost to Sestak. The debates will be critical--consider that an understatement to put a Brit to shame!
Outside of the Palin influence, the biggest problem IMO is that AZ has a lot of older people who remember McCain coming home from the POW hell as a hero, but many of those same people grew up listening to the networks and reading newspapers and STILL get their information from those absolutely rotten sources.