Posted on 07/09/2010 2:13:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
He got it right last year. He said it would be a quiet hurricane season and it was.
Yes, a hurricane needs low pressure to develop but when it passes through a cold ocean it isn’t going to develop very well. That is why we don’t get hurricanes in the upper pacific area it needs to be in warm water.
I'm not sayin he's dumb or ignorant, just that they don't yet have enough data to make predictions that are anything more than guesses.
Like last year with no weather patterns, he based this year on the La Ninia weather formation and we can predict that, but just because heavy activity happened once or twice in the last 20 years, is no guarantee that it will happen again as they have predicted again.
It's just one of many factors.
There are factors yet to be discussed in the media that I have seen, that involved the sun cycles. a 26 year(approx) cycle divided by two 13 year parts, one stronger than the other for some unknown reason, and in the middle is a polar reversal.
That really bad year in Florida occurred just before this reversal and during one of the most active solar years on record.
The sun then went quiet and has been building back up since, but I don't think it will be as bad as the last cycle. but I think worse than last year for sure.
I lived along the gulf coast for 20 years, and I watched and went through several and I made note of the crappy forecasting. If I was to generalize, active years occur about 12 to 13 years apart, and there is little use in forecasting in between because local conditions have most to do with it. But every 12-13 years we get a hurricane season that usually generates a destructive storm or more and it's a given fact.
I would think locally originated storms would be the most common this year, and it's possible that it could be a better than average year, but I remain skeptical of the weather services forecasts based solely on local patterns that affect California more than anyone else but could steer a storm into Texas more than other years.
And sure, you need some heat to sustain a hurricane, but remember, it does not have to hot, just needs a temperature differential to keep the low cranked up. Which is why hurricanes can go all the way to Canada and beyond.
When I say the sun has a lot to do with the seasons, it is because the sun largely controls our weather patterns. Not that the heat makes the storm worse. Both may well happen but it's not well understood. It's the differentials and water-vapor, plus upper level calm that creates the potential. Once they are going, they need more and more to get bigger and replace the eye wall. But they need it all and not just one or the other or two of three. Then they need something to make it move, and without that something they will move to the WNW as the earth spins and their rotation affects them with friction. The shape is also a factor.
The forecasters have Florida all upset and Florida may not see anything this year. I lived there for years, and I despised the hurricane forecasters. That is why I despise these forecasts as they are nothing but Hollywood hyperbole. Geared to get attention with little factual matter except a guess that one weather pattern will cause hurricanes to hit the US. (and the fact they think we are due because of last year)
You expect a polar reversal soon? I wonder what the effects will be? If I the reversal is slow during the transition the cosmic rays could be devastating. As I understand it most of our clouds are created from cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere.
I find when Texas is as wet as it has been this year...it means a strong El Nino...
The last one caused some solar wind increases, but then it calmed down to dead steady, which has caused some cooling and one hell of a lot of rain the past few years.
As this cycle gets older, the activity will increase and then it all starts over again.
It is believed that this is just one of many patterns in the suns behavior. As soon as they figure it all out, we will have much better weather forecasting here.
One of the other guys may know the schedule. I have become tired of arguing my points with the globull warmers and have been too busy to keep up with it of late.
Yes, and no. I was taught that theory in the 60s. There is a connection between the solar wind and clouds, but I think the reverse is closer to the truth. As the winds die down, and the radiation cools, the warmed air that has warmed the oceans begins to cool ever so slightly, and the oceans begin to give off their latent heat along with a lot of water vapor.
The cooler air cannot hold the vapor and clouds form, rain, snow falls at a greater rate for a period of years. after a cycle. Then it starts again, but there are differences in the cycles and this fits into a greater cycle over many hundreds of years. Who knows how many cycles there are and then you add the fact that the sun has a life span.
It's all very interesting to study and I am not scientifically trained. I am in the electrical field, which is what got me interested in the sun. It messed with my wiring and systems from time to time. So I wanted to get to know and understand it.
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