Posted on 07/07/2010 7:25:38 PM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
For months now, the alarm bells have been sounding for President Obama. First there was the drop in support among independents. Then his precipitous drop in support among white voters. Now comes the predictable news that Wall Street donors, sick of being used as political punching bags, are no longer lavishing campaign funds on Democrats.
But while these developments should be worrisome to the White House, they should be downright terrifying to congressional Democrats. Obama has time to right himself. For congressional Democrats, time has almost run out.
A series of focus groups in five states conducted last month for the conservative nonprofit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. The same can't be said of their feelings for congressional Democrats.
In analyzing one such group in Orlando, GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen concluded that it was two issues, health care and BP's oil spill, that ultimately soured these independent voters on Obama. On health care, van Lohuizen blames the process of the debate more than the substance for turning off independents. As for BP, voters are disappointed that they "don't see strong leadership" from the president.
While Obama could still win these voters back in 2012, van Lohuizen says, they are "pretty well lost" to Democrats this fall.
These voters aren't exactly sold on the GOP, either. If Republicans take control of Congress, they'll "have to deliver," said Resurgent director Ed Gillespie. If they don't, voters will be more than willing to throw them out too.
Obama's struggle among white voters has also gotten plenty of ink lately. Still, it'll be felt most acutely and immediately by House Democrats. Only a handful of the 66 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats as rated by the Cook Political Report have significant minority populations. For example, three of the most vulnerable freshman Democrats -- Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.-03), John Boccieri (Ohio-16) and Mark Schauer (Mich.-07) -- sit in districts that range between 87 percent and 93 percent white.
Moreover, the percentage of white voters tends to increase in midterm elections. That's not always a problem for Democrats. In '06, for example, while white voters made up 79 percent of the electorate, Democrats won 47 percent of the white vote. That year, many Democrats won in rural and overwhelmingly white districts. Think Zack Space in Ohio-18, Heath Shuler in N.C.-11, and Christopher Carney in Pa.-10.
This year, however, the white vote is breaking overwhelmingly toward the GOP. The most recent Gallup generic ballot shows white voters giving Democrats just 38 percent of the vote. That's not just an Obama problem, that's a Democratic problem.
Finally, we always knew that it was going to be tough for Obama to convey his Internet fundraising prowess to his Democratic colleagues. After all, first-time political donors who got swept up in Obama-mania are not going to be the slightest bit interested in supporting a random Democratic incumbent they've probably never heard of in the first place. But a poor economy combined with a frustrated donor base and the likelihood of an energized GOP 527 effort spells real danger for House Democrats. Their one saving grace is that the National Republican Congressional Committee has been unable to capitalize on its good fortune. If the NRCC doesn't start raising some more money, and soon, it could leave a whole lot of seats on the table this fall. And we suspect that 527 groups like American Crossroads are going to be focusing their fire almost exclusively on Senate races, especially if they are having trouble hitting their fundraising goals.
With just over four months left until Election Day, there's plenty of time for something big to happen that will change the current trajectory. But the emphasis should be on the word "big." A simple change in tone or an uptick in trend lines ain't gonna do it.
Ping!
RNC donations are down but people ARE giving to specific, conservative candidates. So there’s money to be donated to quality, conservative candidates. Just not gonna run it through the RNC so they can send part of to RINO’s.
Ob**a hates wh*tey.
Hundreds of billions of dollars in unspent “stimulus” funds for local use at election time + massive number of ACORN phony registrations + Black Panther/SEIU/Other Obama Thugs intimidation of poll watchers = Rats retain House and Senate.
They really thought by now the economy would be rebounding so their losses would not be so bad. But with only 3 more job reports before Nov 2 there is no way things will improve enough unless they fudge the figures entirely. So now they own the bad economy. Despite the mess the Dems have created or made worse they still are doing way better than they deserve to do.
“Finally, we always knew that it was going to be tough for Obama to convey his Internet fundraising prowess to his Democratic colleagues. ... Their one saving grace is that the National Republican Congressional Committee has been unable to capitalize on its good fortune. If the NRCC doesn’t start raising some more money, and soon, it could leave a whole lot of seats on the table this fall.”
While I am glad to see and scan articles such as this one, the fact remains that we (conservatives, Independents and Republicans of all stripes) must get to the polls and vote for the destruction and total defeat of the anti-American Democrat Party. Our side should just not be content with taking back either the House or Senate by a few votes. We need to shoot for and work our butts off to win both the House and Senate with overide majorities. If this were to be achieved, Barack Hussein Obama would be easily overriden or impeached. So.....forget articles like these, and make certain that everyone on our team gets out and votes. Your future and our great country’s future is at stake, not to mention the future of your children and grandchildren. Get to it and...forget all the positive blabber!!!
That should be a billboard, FU America. We got our’s from u
Speakers up; enjoy and pass around. This is appropriate beyond words.
http://www.therightscoop.com/i-am-america
Marco Rubio sent me 2 letters today looking for money. I get them almost daily. Sorry Marco you are a pro-illegal wise latina RINO. I liked you but after AZ - I do not like you. I wish FL’s GOP was not infested with RINOs.
Charlie Crist makes my skin crawl.
Marco Rubio sent me 2 letters today looking for money. I get them almost daily. Sorry Marco you are a pro-illegal wise latina RINO. I liked you but after AZ - I do not like you. I wish FL’s GOP was not infested with RINOs.
Charlie Crist makes my skin crawl.
Ah yes. The Obamalini excuse. "It not what we did, it's how it was done." What a total crock. It's absolutely what those commiecrats did. (Not that how they did it was anything short of obscene either.)
That pretty much sums it up. Watch the rats turn on a dime and hate this and that. They were lock-step on the sweeping agendas that turned us to socialism. They can kiss-ass and get their political neck broken come November. They have no constitutional guidance whatsoever and follow the Obama wind. Well, Obama is anti-constitutional and they followed all the way. Get rid of them.
Yea, especally now that we know how it happened. It isn’t all that tough to raise a lot of cash if you turn off all the credit card security checks on your donation sites to take money from around the world, then campaign outside of the country.
"Prowess" Yea, right.
.
Exactly. The RNC is more of an anchor than anything.
Every time they call, I kindly explain that RINOS are no longer welcome and that no money is forthcoming until I see
conservative bolla. We are not a party of Lindsey Grahams.
I think we’ll do OK in the midterms but unless things change, the RNC will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2012 - as is their habit.
It would be great if we could sweep all the lib out of control, eliminate all Federal departments not specifically authorized by the Constitution. Then eliminate corporate income tax to cause a flood of investment from all over the world to America. Let the state handle education, agriculture, environmental protection. Think of how great it would be? Prosperity, economic growth, freedom and NO ONE LIBS up there screwing up our country. Yeah.
Actually, I think people are really PO’d and motivated. The Democrats will make every effort to steal the election but for the most part they will only be able to steal close elections. Let’s hope most of the elections aren’t very close.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.