I agree with your thesis.
That 35% is the foundation upon which they will attempt to construct a Clintonian plurality for 2012.
I never, ever, thought I would say this but give me Hillary right now and call it a day. She's pragmatic whereas Obamarx is simply evil/incompetent.
Hard to do without a Perot.
As the 2008 election demonstrated, third parties have pretty close to zero appeal.
In fact, absent a well-known candidate (like Perot, Anderson, LaFollette and Roosevelt) no third party ever gets much more than 2% of the vote.
I'm not sure who the celebrity third party candidate who will siphon GOP votes could be at this point.