I’ve never done that, and this is my job.So you think this is not "crystal ball stuff," yet you expect him to look into a crystal ball.
"So you think this is not "crystal ball stuff," yet you expect him to look into a crystal ball. "
Your reading comprehension is worse than a -1. This professional research economist is pimping his vetted, internally coherent models and his ability to understand them. Notice he avoids mentioning his models' adherence to reality, because then one might notice that his models suck.
I made the comment, because Mr. Athreya's propaganda piece is as empty and worthless as the models and certs he's pimping were in predicting the housing crises. Yes the piece is nothing more than propaganda, in the form of an appeal to authority. It is w/o any data all and he's simply promoting the propaganda technique itself.
The only sense that economics is not simple is that is an extensive field of knowledge. The KISS principle still applies everywhere in economics, as it does everywhere else in reality, except that it's notably disguised in a mire of complexity in the con's game. The idea that econ is a complex, chaotic dynamical system whose dynamics can't be formulated and conveyed to the ignorant is bogus, else no one would known anything about it. Chaos is simple and deterministic and is never an incomprehensible, "random" process. An example of chaos is the 3 body problem. How many physical interactions involving 3 bodies are incomprehensible and have "random, unpredictable outcomes"?
The article is just the same attempt to get the public to swallow "appeal to authority" as a valid logical operation. It's pushed by unions, such as the AMA, electrical, steelworkers, and now the national brotherhood of clown econocrats.
If anyone wants to believe this crap, that one needs a pocketful of creds to understand anything, they will be welcomed by their clown masters and their ignorant and lazy fellows. If anyone desires to remain free, they'll reject this bogus logical operation and anyone that attempts to gain an absolute power over their own thoughts, decisions and activities with such a tool.
"I’ve never done that, and this is my job."
Nevertheless, it's simply an excuse. A major event occurred which was in the sphere of this bozo's professed expertise and it took him by surprise. Nevertheless, he wants the whole world to give him and his self anointed pool of experts sole speaking, writing and operational license.