She won’t run. She gives up everything if she does. It’d be the end of her pundit career.
I don’t disagree with your hypothesis; Sarah is doing well right where she is now. The emotional burden on her if she ran would be immense, and it’s not as though one person is going to be able to undo the damage all by herself.
I say she runs—and I don’t see how even if she ran and lost that would spoil her pundit potential.