The bulk of the gas price goes to the Federal government through leases, corp taxes and gas taxes. The futures markets serve a purpose: producers can increase supply because they can hedge against price changes.
As we saw in the “flash crash”, speculators DO INDEED drive prices on stocks and commodities. Spot market prices have little or nothing to do with supply, demand, production, or distribution. The federal govt’s take is a constant. Not some variable to factor in on price speculation. The motive is greed on wall street, and the oil market should be closed to speculators. If you don’t own a refinery, you CAN’T buy oil. Or, to keep it a “free market”, if you buy oil, you MUST TAKE DELIVERY OF IT at your location. That would be the desk of some NY broker, most times. Nice and messy...