40 seats is probably understated. Come quickly November!!
The GOP is going to pick up 8 seats in NY alone. The reason I predict this is that most pundits are putting NY20 in #8 place (see keyhouseraces.com) and this NPR survey hits only 7 NY races and doesn’t even include NY20.
Well, Chris Gibson is going to beat Scott Murphy. No doubt whatsoever.
This is a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats 187000 to 125000 (see http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_apr10.pdf). Gibson has a great personal story, he’s a really good guy 1 on 1, and he can captivate an audience. I was in Manhattan last night and he gave an electric speech. He is going to be our Congressman come November.
I know why the pundits are ignoring NY20, and that is because they are only looking at the statistics, not the qualitative aspects - the Dems have won 3 elections in a row. However the GOP has run problematic candidates (2006 Sweeney - domestic violence; 2008 Treadwell - lacklustre; 2009 Tedisco - interloper). With the GOP running a quality, district-appropriate home-grown candidate this time, it won’t even be close.
If the Democrats are not including NY20 in their losses, that would indicate they have hit the snooze bar again. It’s going to be even worse than this survey predicts.