By my estimate there are about 50 to 60 million American citizens age 21 years or older who DID NOT VOTE in the 2008 Presidential Elections.
The Tea Parties have already succeeded in arousing some of these millions to get politically involved... And by election time many more millions will vote from this non voting group.
I agree with other posted comments - many who voted for Democrats will in 2008 will not be motivated to show up - regardless of letters of appeal from the Dems.
And most importantly - the Independents who turned out and voted for Obama and the Dems in ‘08 - have already decided that it was a BIG MISTAKE and will vote against the Dems in 2010...
We can win the House and get as many as 44 to 46 Republican Senators...
With a Republican majority in the House (hopefully mostly Conservative) and with a filibuster proof senate - Obama will be a BIG LAME DUCK ...
The Portland paper had some interesting stats the other day on party switching:
1,200 people went from unenrolled to Republican
658 people went from unenrolled to Democrat
956 people went from Democrat to Republican
346 people went from Republican to Democrat