Your scenario is one possible way it could play out. However, I sense voter anger and disgust at this President and the Dims in Congress is fairly strong and with a landslide take over of Republicans in the Congress, I think they would be emboldened by the results to overturn some laws, and make the ‘present’ voting President pick a side. He will continue his overt radical agenda by vetoing everything in direct opposition to the obvious will of the people, and he will have no chance in 2012.
The media will be the workhorse of Jr's campaign from Nov 3, 2010 through Nov 6, 2012.