N.Korean Eminence Grise Dead in Mysterious Circumstances

A powerful North Korean official has suddenly died in mysterious circumstances. North Korea on Wednesday evening announced the death in a car accident of Ri Je-gang (80), the first deputy director of the Workers Party's Organization and Guidance Department.

Ri worked at the powerful department directly supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il for 37 years. He was apparently deeply involved in establishing the succession for Kim's son Jong-un. Kim Jong-un's mother, the late Ko Yong-hee, reportedly asked him to make sure that one of her sons, Jong-chol or Jong-un, succeeds their father. Ko died in 2004.

Senior positions in the party, the government, and the military were more or less in Ri’s gift.

Experts say there is something fishy about the sudden death of this eminence grise. It is possible that Ri was killed while driving his own car drunk after participating in one of Kim Jong-il’s secret parties, which happened to Kim Yong-sun, a party secretary in charge of South Korean affairs, in 2003 at the age of 69. But chances are slim that the octogenarian Ri drove himself.

But experts say the timing of his death is peculiar, coming as it did hard on the heels of the dismissal on May 14 of Kim Il-chol, the minister of the people's armed forces, for reasons of old age, also at the age of 80. Ri Yong-chol (81), another senior deputy director of the Organization and Guidance Department who had supported Ko Young-hee alongside Ri Je-gang, died of a reported heart attack in April.

They story about Jang sung-taek, No.2 man and brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il, is that he has great social skills and can win over many people. However, for those who won't come to his side, he made sure they won't survive.

Naturally, everybody alive likes him. So goes the story. Since there has been a bad blood between Ri Je-gang and Jang Sunk-taek, you cannot rule out the Jang's hand in this incident, although there are other plausible possibilities. For example, Kim Jong-un could unilaterally have done it even without consulting Jang.

Since Mr Kim’s illness in 2008, conservative hardliners including his powerful brother-in-law, Chang Sung Taek, are thought to have become stronger. Mr Chang, who as head of domestic security runs North Korea’s equivalent to the KGB, was elected to the powerful National Defence Commission (NDC) last year. He and other NDC members travelled with Mr Kim on his recent visit to China, leading some to suspect they were being presented to China as a government-in-waiting to maintain continuity during the handover of power to his son.

...

If China is wrong, however, and a meltdown does occur, the risks are enormous. North Korea’s GDP per head is about 6% that of South Korea’s (see chart), which is far lower than East Germany’s was compared with West Germany when the Berlin Wall collapsed. This means that unifying the two countries could be treacherous, with costs that the South Korean central bank has put as high as $900 billion over four decades.

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16214349

Game of chicken is being played not only by N. Korea but also by China. They keep propping up unstable N. Korean regime so that they can gain more and more leverage against S. Korea and U.S. as well as Japan. However, it is a dangerous game.

Because of this, there would be no coordinated plan to deal with the collapse. There would be at least two opposing plans. The N. Koreans themselves (single faction or multiple faction) may have their own plan, S. Korea could have its own plan somewhat different from American version. Inside S. Korea, there would be two competing plans put forth by two opposing political forces.

I don't see them working out a plan everybody can live with. That is a pipe dream just as unrealistic as Chia Head willingly giving up nukes in return for some economic aids.

The real wild card media fails to discuss is that, when and if the collapse comes, are all players have time and resources to resolve this situation?

What I mean is that economic crisis would get worse everyday in U.S. It will be so in China as well. China faces a prospect of widespread civil unrest much worse than what America would have in a similar situation. The economic and social situation in other countries in the region may not be better.

They all may end up facing this disaster just when they are least afford to. I suspect that will be the case.

Chia Head could still have some wild card under his sleeve. While he is in no win situation strategically, he offers tactical surprises now and then. Cheonan's sinking is one example.

What if Chia Head threatens nuclear suicide holed up in an underground bunkers in Mt. Baekdu? It will create nuclear fallouts which could blanket N.E. China or entire Korean Peninsula. It all depends which way the wind blows at the time. Since Mt. Baekdu is a dormant volcano(it is not dead yet,) it could set off a volcanic eruption as well. Certainly we have emboldened Chia Head. He is so confident that, while he is dying, he can still manage to terrorize neighbors. The scenario of threatening nuclear suicide may sound far-fetched, but this kind of things should not be ruled out. He saw nobody having balls. So he feels free to push envelop even further into an uncharted territory.

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