You're an engineer, right? Then you know that petroleum offers more energy per pound of fuel than any of the other source we have and are like to have in the next hundred years, except possibly nuclear but we refuse to consider that option. By definition, all other forms of driving transit is going to make the cost go up more than the cost of oil.
Petroleum historically has offered such a better energy rate of return compared to other sources that it comprises over 95 percent of the energy source for all our transportation. It supplies nitrogen for fertilizer, enabling us to feed a world of nine billion people. Petroleum is critical for making the tires on our cars, the asphalt for our roads, and even the aspirin we take after a tough drive home from the office.
If we had easily available oil like we had in 1950 we could afford to continue and even expand our suburban lifestyle, living far from the city and driving to our heart’s content. Problem is, we don’t have that cheap oil anymore. There is plenty of oil, but it’s in places like four miles below the Gulf of Mexico, not in Midland, Texas.
Everything we have built in the last 50 years has assumed we could have as much oil as we wanted at a dirt cheap price. In the next 20 years we are going to pay dearly for those decisions.
Yes, natural gas, coal, and everything else will go up in price as the price of oil rises, but the alternatives are going to be more competitive. The key will be the joules (or BTUs or kilowatt-hours) that are needed to move one person or one piece of freight a given distance. Once gas reaches five or six dollars a gallon we will see competitive alternatives emerge at the market level. At eight dollars a gallon our aviation industry cannot survive at its present scope of service, and we will not be able to maintain our highway system.
How we move public transit or private vehicles or freight is one issue. The bigger question is how we feed those nine billion people without the fertilizers and nutrients that enable an Iowa farmer to get so much bushels of corn per acre. Do we use our remaining oil for food or for fuel? Do we fight resource wars for oil? Do we cut ourselves off from the rest of the world, going local and ending globalization? I won’t live to see the answers, but my children will. Hopefully, they will choose more wisely than we have.