Posted on 05/29/2010 6:38:38 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle to Korea crises.
Like a street gang showing off its power to run amok in a well-heeled neighborhood, the North Koreans launch a missile over Japan or set off a nuclear test or stage an attack — as strong evidence indicates they did in March, when a South Korean warship was torpedoed. Expressions of outrage follow. So do vows that this time, the North Koreans will pay a steep price.
SNIP
The White House betting is that the latest crisis, stemming from the March attack, will also abate without much escalation. But there is more than a tinge of doubt. The big risk, as always, is what happens if the North Koreans make a major miscalculation. (It wouldn’t be their first. Sixty years ago, Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung, thought the West wouldn’t fight when he invaded the South. The result was the Korean War.)
SNIP
And President Obama has made it clear he intends to break the old cycle. “We’re out of the inducements game,” one senior administration official, who would not discuss internal policy discussions on the record, said last week. “For 15 years at least, the North Koreans have been in the extortion business, and the U.S. has largely played along. That’s over.”
That may change the North’s behavior, but it could backfire. “There’s an argument that in these circumstances, the North Koreans may perceive that their best strategy is to escalate,” says Joel Wit, a former State Department official who now runs a Web site that follows North Korean diplomacy.
SNIP
So what if this time is different? Here are five situations in which good sense might not prevail.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
An Incident at Sea
Shelling the DMZ
A Power Struggle or Coup
An Internal Collapse
A Nuclear Provocation
cockadoodle-roar?
6) Barack Obama as POTUS.
” And President Obama has made it clear he intends to break the old cycle. “We’re out of the inducements game,” one senior administration official, who would not discuss internal policy discussions on the record, said last week. “For 15 years at least, the North Koreans have been in the extortion business, and the U.S. has largely played along. That’s over.” “
Uh, huh....
NK acts as if it needs a spanking, badly. They attack in intl waters and then deny attacking, then dare anyone to retaliate. Very well, then, one way to spank them is to take out a few of their subs and deny any involvement, tit for tat. If nothing else, it would serve as a disincentive at the low level, which would percolate to the high level. And NK could not formally retaliate since no one would claim responsibility.
Yes.
GaySC and JetJ check this out:
http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm
wars have a funny way of getting out of control ... with unintended consequences ...
it’s almost a given that Red China goes for Taiwan if the North Koreans attack the South ...
Yikes, had not thought of that, guess you have a good point...
The South can and will stop them, just at horrible cost.
If there is a war it will be the result of a miscalculation on the part of the Norks, not intentional.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.