A Single Democratic Victory in a Single Pennsylvania Race Doesn’t Change Anything

The New Republic ^ | May 21, 2010 | William Galston

[cripplecreek]

Its an over analyzed race in a democrat heavy district.

[Clintonfatigued]

I’m surprised to see this from New Republic. But it’s clear that Republican pickups aren’t going to fall into their laps. They have to make it happen.

[PAR]

Dems will do the same thing this November they did in 2006 - run candidates who pretend they are conservative but will vote exactly how Obama/Pelosi need them to vote when it counts. This is why we have Obambacare now. Many of Rahm’s lying 2006 candidates will be booted out in November, but the damage is done.

I will be surprised if Critz is any different. If Pelosi needs his vote for future healthcare votes or cap & trade, she will get it and the people will be fools once more. I expect that most dems running this November will be no different - running as hard as they can from Obama, that is until it really counts.

[cradle of freedom]

Looks like the Dems are still playing the Bart Stupak, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu card; “You can trust us we are the moderate democrats. We’re not the scary San Francisco, New York, Chicago liberals.” The white blue collar Democrat voters are the dumbest of all. How many times have they been played by the sharpster Dem pols?

[television is just wrong]

we are not going to win every race, just more than usual...

[Tribune7]

Just like a single Pub victory in Obama’s alleged home district in Hawaii doesn’t change anything.

[Kenny]

Actually, I’m pretty encouraged if they’re this relieved to keep a safe seat. They’re trying to act like it’s a pickup from a red district but no one’s really buying into the spin.

All I can say is ALOHA DEMS!!

[Hoodat]

Critz stated repeatedly during the campaign that he would have voted against Obamacare. I don’t quite see how his victory in a heavily Democrat district is a win for Obama Democrats.

[boycott]

We need to watch out and learn from that race. The guy tried to run as a conservative.

If he was a true conservative, he wouldn’t have been a democrat.

People are suckers.

[eeriegeno]

I will be surprised if Critz is any different. If Pelosi needs his vote for future healthcare votes or cap & trade, she will get it and the people will be fools once more.

It seems that there are a whole lot of those (fools) in Pennsylvania's 12th! Their previous genius representative called them rednecks who cling to their bibles and guns and they still voted for him. The same rep, rest his soul, accused the military of harassing Iraqi civilians and killing them in the middle of the night and the 'apparent thinking?' voters of Pa-12, many who have military ties, voted the clown back in? I suspect that the water in the Youghiogheny and Monongahela Rivers is contaminated to the point where the voters in that region can't think straight?

[FreeperDoll]

Yes, people are suckers, it's how obozo got into office, but thank God the light is shining and hope {real hope} is in insight..I believe the sleeping giant is sturing... Palin power 2012 ><>

[Vigilanteman]

The New Republic is my go to source for the liberal point of view. Even though it is hard left, they still employ actual journalists who do actual research, unlike the lapdog MSM who simply repackages the DNC talking points.

[neverdem]

But it’s clear that Republican pickups aren’t going to fall into their laps. They have to make it happen.

Thinking Burns had a shot in this district with a 2:1 voter registraton against him was just wishful thinking. Burns was doomed when Fast Eddie called the special election to coincide with the rats' statewide primary.

They got this false hope from statewide victories in NJ, VA & MA, states with large numbers of independents. IIRC, registered independents outnumber the rats in NJ & MA.

I wouldn't be surprised if many of those independents are former pubbies who became disgusted with all the RINOs in the GOP, much like the Conservative Party in NY.

I liked Jack Kelly's analysis of PA here:

Democrats: No Reason to Celebrate

[WOSG]

Dems will do the same thing this November they did in 2006 - run candidates who pretend they are conservative but will vote exactly how Obama/Pelosi need them to vote when it counts. This is why we have Obambacare now. Many of Rahm’s lying 2006 candidates will be booted out in November, but the damage is done.”

Sooner or later the lying comes home to roost.

For the liberal liar Chet Edwards, who is in a very Republican district but survived year after year as a smiling porker who’d savage his Republican opponents ... the gig is up, he’s 10 points down, and his Republican opponent will ahve plenty of money to match Chet’s warchest.

Critz, a non-incumbent got away with it ... but few others will. In 1994, most of the open seats were won by Republicans. Same will happen here.

“I expect that most dems running this November will be no different - running as hard as they can from Obama, that is until it really counts.” But they have those votes to live down.

[srmorton]

Like Rush said on Friday, we do not have to win districts in which the voter registration is 2:1 Democrat to Republican in order to take back the house. We just need to win back those marginal or lean Republican districts that the Dems “stole” by running unknown left-leaning candidates that sounded as if they were conservative. Although it worked this time in this heavily Democratic district, I do not think that the people in most cases are going to be fooled again. Not that the Republicans will not have to work hard to win those seats back, but they just can not let the Democrats get away with pretending to be other than they really are.

[FredZarguna]

The RCP piece has most -- but not all of the reasons. Here is what I posted on NRO in response to idiotic hand-wringing the day after (with a little more elaboration):

1. The GOP should have run Russell, the man who opposed Murtha last time. Instead, they picked an unknown. The consequence was Burns running against Critz in the Special , and Burns running against Russell in the primary _on the same ballot_. Gleason was outmaneuvered by Rendell, who made this possible. Throwing Burns into the mix confused everything, and how was Russell supposed to support Burns on the same election day that he opposed him?

   Just dumb.

2. The PA primary is closed. Dem turnout was very high because of Specter v. Sestak. In November, some independents will be heard from.
3. Burns ran a horrible campaign. He was practically invisible until the last few days of the contest (my district is right next door.) One appearance on Sean Hannity isn't effective media. The Pelosi ads were clever, but Burns didn't tie Pelosi to Critz effectively enough, so the ads didn't have the impact they needed.
4. Critz actually ran to the right of Burns. He deliberately kept current big name Democrats out of the district, including, no surprise, BH0.
5. 2-1 Democrat registration advantage, in -- did I mention -- a closed primary?
6. A very heavy Big Labor district, specially gerrymandered to Murtha's advantage. Generally, union members will vote for Democrats in PA, unless they think there are gun issues with the Dem. They didn't think that in this race.
7. An extremely popular, even if corrupt, predecessor who recently died while in office. This is a major point that no one on the national scene has picked up on. When Murtha died, the turnout for his services was huge. Despite his idiotic statements about the war, most locals knew nothing about this. He died, very recently, and a very popular man within his district.

   Crtiz was Murtha's guy, and he managed to identify himself effectively with Johnstown voters as such. This was a plus for him the Republican couldn't claim.

A very nearly perfect storm was brought to bear on Burns, courtesy of decades of gold ol' fashioned pork barrel politics, a cagey Governor, and an inept Republican Party machine. The outcome was actually pretty decent for us, considering all the factors.

[sport]

We are not going to win all of them. There are too man idiots, fools, traitors, and parasites for that to happen.

But, if we do not begin to turn things around in November..... I think anyone with any intelligence knows the alternative.

[Maelstorm]

I agree with this piece. There is something playing out that is really going to send an earthquake through politics. Burns lost because of confluence of events that came from having the primary on the same day as the special election also the local dynamic involving Russel voter angst and Critz running to the right of Murtha didn’t help. Burns will win this seat come Nov.

[Steely Tom]

Did they actually spell "districts" with an apostrophe at The New Republic?

I Googled and they did.