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Did Joe Sestak’s Surge Save Mark Critz? (Crunching the Numbers in PA-12)
National Review ^ | 05/20/2010 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 05/20/2010 7:14:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 05/20/2010 7:14:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

This is not by any notion a “Swing District, this is a solidly D seat that they should of won 60-40. That they only got 53% should be ringing alarm bells in Democrat circles not producing this sort of arrogant smug complacency.

I think we can chalk PA-12 up to a failure of the GOP Establishment in PA. How do you let a career political operative from DC run to the right of your candidate in the current political environment?

Go take a look at Critz issue page. He ran as a Republican. He hypes how he is Pro Life, Pro 2nd Amendment, Pro Domestic Energy production and Pro Military. He also stressed his ties to the US Military and his getting some big award from the National Guard.

Burns on the other hand has no solid creditably with the military plus he is easy to caricature as an “Evil big businessman” in a solidly blue collar district. In addition to that the GOP Establishment threw over solidly conservative, ex military man Russel to run the light weight Country Clubber Burns.

On the surface PA-12 voted for the more Conservative candidate. We all know that is nonsense but most voters are not so involved in the process as Freepers

Once again it seems the GOP was more interested in a candidate that could self fund then one who actually had a serious shot at this seat.

The questions for Nov are:

Are there enough of these sorts of newbie Dems running as Republican Lite to hold these districts for the Dems?

Is the GOP Establishment so uniformly incompetent that they cannot find credible candidates who have a serious connection with the voters in these sorts of district?

How would these voters break if they are confronted with a serious Establishment Democrat vrs a serious challenger Conservative rather the being forced to choose between a faux “Republican lite” Democrat and a Establishment Country Club Republican?

PA 12 indicates nothing about Nov.

PA-12 was the Dems seat to lose and they didn’t. Big Whoopie! Kerry carried in in 2004 and McCain won it by like 1% of the vote. It is NOT a “Swing District” it is a solid “Safe D” district.

The take away from PA 12 should be that the Dems had to work this hard to win this safe seat. Those facts should be ringing warning bells in DNC circles not generating the sort of arrogantly smug complacency being expressed by Democrat Propaganda Press


2 posted on 05/20/2010 7:17:20 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: nathanbedford

Thoughts?


3 posted on 05/20/2010 7:17:39 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: MNJohnnie

This is an economically distressed district that lives off of pork.

I wish we’d quit devoting time and money to it.


4 posted on 05/20/2010 7:19:35 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (we now live in a post-Obamapacolyptic world)
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To: SeekAndFind

Geraghty ignores the facts Critz ran as a Conservative on several issues, the 12th district is 2:1 in favor of RATs, Burns loss was much closer than that margin and this is only for a five month term. Critz will have to star campaigning immediately for November. All this bodes well for Burns should he decide to run.


5 posted on 05/20/2010 7:20:40 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

This makes sense to me.


6 posted on 05/20/2010 7:21:03 AM PDT by Ingtar (If Palin were perfect, she could campaign for godhood. Since she is human, Obama's job will do.)
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To: NeoCaveman

If they have to spend money to win these safe seats, they have less money to spend in the swing seats.


7 posted on 05/20/2010 7:21:04 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: SeekAndFind

I know of one Pennsylvania Democrat who decided to vote against Specter in this primary, but plans to vote against Sestack in the general election in November. Don’t know how representative her feelings are, though.


8 posted on 05/20/2010 7:22:01 AM PDT by ConjunctionJunction (I can see November from my house.)
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To: MNJohnnie

whoever the more conservative candidate is, I support that person. In the Repub primary, dem primary, and general election. I read that Mark Critz is a pro-lifer, anti capandtax, and pro-second amendment rights. That’s good,fora Democrat, but for the res tof the issues, I am not sure. We need conservatives in office, and if that means a Democrat over a Repub, so be it, but the Repub party is still the conservative party and conservatives must fight to return it to it’s conservative principles. That means truly invoking our platform and revoking the idea of a big-tent, clown party.


9 posted on 05/20/2010 7:22:02 AM PDT by FutureRocketMan
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To: MNJohnnie

True. But if we are spedning money on this seat, it leaves us less money to pick up other seats too.

I can think of maybe 60 seats more attractive than this one, and at least 3 (maybe 4) of them are in PA.


10 posted on 05/20/2010 7:22:30 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (we now live in a post-Obamapacolyptic world)
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To: MNJohnnie
Jim Geraghty is right on this one. I made the exact same point on this PA-12 election on several threads yesterday.

The Democratic candidate won in the PA-12 election because the Democratic turnout was higher than usual due to the high-profile, hotly-contested statewide primary election between Sestak and Specter.

Pat Toomey is already the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate race, so there was no comparable high-profile statewide race to bring GOP voters out.

It's also worth noting that Pennsylvania has a "closed" primary system, so independents weren't involved in the primary election anyway and therefore had less incentive to show up for the PA-12 election.

11 posted on 05/20/2010 7:24:32 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.")
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To: NeoCaveman

Grassroots efforts may elect more candidates than money. I think that we can win a landslide without much money.


12 posted on 05/20/2010 7:24:32 AM PDT by FutureRocketMan
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To: FutureRocketMan

The problem is that the “conservative” Dim goes to DC and ends up part of Team Pelosi. They all toe the line. What good do these espoused values do then?


13 posted on 05/20/2010 7:25:01 AM PDT by Ingtar (If Palin were perfect, she could campaign for godhood. Since she is human, Obama's job will do.)
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To: FutureRocketMan
We need conservatives in office, and if that means a Democrat over a Repub

I see the lesson of 2006 and 2008 have STILL not sunk in with some people.Everyone of those Conservative Dems you elect is going to DC and voting for Nancy Reid to be Speaker and Harry Reid to be Senate Majority Leader

In 2006 and 2008 a whole lot of people ran around here arguing that same dogma "Pick the Conservative Dem over the RINO".

And in 2006 and 2008 we elected those "Conservative" Democrats. And they went right to DC and voted in lock step with the Nancy Pelosie far Left "Progressives".

For example, Obama Health Care passed because those "Conservative" Democrats voted in lock step with their party leadership while every single RINO voted to kill the monster.

It is utterly naive to think there are ANY "Conservative" Democrats.

They are none. Their actions in DC show it. All they are doing is LYING to you when they claim to be "Conservative".

14 posted on 05/20/2010 7:28:17 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: nathanbedford
It's also worth noting that Pennsylvania has a "closed" primary system, so independents weren't involved in the primary election anyway and therefore had less incentive to show up for the PA-12 election.

Did you know this. I didn't. Sure puts a different light on Tuesdays results in PA-12

15 posted on 05/20/2010 7:30:41 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: Alberta's Child
Thanks for the excellent insight. I did not know that point that Indys were not a big factor in Tuesdays results.
16 posted on 05/20/2010 7:31:47 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: MNJohnnie
Did you know this. I didn't. Sure puts a different light on Tuesdays results in PA-12

It does, but it's also a good thing. Open primaries gave us John McCain.

Unfortunately, Critz is now the "incumbent" in November.

17 posted on 05/20/2010 7:40:42 AM PDT by Dan Nunn (Some of us are wise, some of us are otherwise. -The Great One)
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To: MNJohnnie

You’re very welcome, but I can’t take all the credit for it. I didn’t know that point about the independents either, until a couple of Freepers from Pennsylvania pointed it out on a few threads yesterday.


18 posted on 05/20/2010 7:56:03 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.")
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To: Dan Nunn
Unfortunately, Critz is now the "incumbent" in November.

Not really. He will be forced to choose between Pelosi and his "conservative" credentials. He can be easily exposed as a fraud this way.

19 posted on 05/20/2010 8:01:25 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: Dan Nunn

Being an incumbent in November may not be a good thing, if recent high-profile elections in this country are any indication.


20 posted on 05/20/2010 8:03:31 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.")
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