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The PA-12 Results Are Bad For the GOP. Just How Bad?
National Review Online ^ | May 18, 2010 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 05/19/2010 7:12:16 AM PDT by neverdem

In Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Republican Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz.

One reader’s on the ledge:

Pa12 is more than a disappointment.  It is a disaster.  You know politics as well as I do (even though I’m probably your senior by at least thirty years).  When there is a political wave the following happens: parties win special elections in normally difficult districts; they win with weak candidates; they win all the close elections. They just win, win, and win.   Burns’s defeat shows, as of now, the Rs will unlikely take the House.  Perhaps they’ll do well; as today’s generic Gallup indicates around a gain in the low thirties.  But not what we need.  I didn’t read much about what Burns’ campaign was like, perhaps you can offer some meaningful analysis.  My guess is that the Republican label is still a liability in many areas; areas that they have to win in order to take the House.

A point: Tim Burns’ task was complicated by the fact that he was running against a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat who ran against the health care bill and the cap-and-trade legislation. The Burns campaign did everything they could to tie Critz to Democratic figures and laws that polled badly in the district – Pelosi, the health care bill — and it appears that in the end, voters in the district weren’t buying it.

But I am wondering about the Burns campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation at this hour. Also, another conservative blogger mentioned to me a few days ago that some supporters of Bill Russell, the Republican who ran against John Murtha in 2008, wouldn’t be supporting Burns in the special election. (Russell is competing against Burns in the primary election for the November ballot; at this moment, Burns leads Russell, 56 percent to 43 percent.) I was skeptical that enough Russell supporters would do this to effect the race, but now I’m wondering. Did the Russell folks keep their ballots blank?

UPDATE: Jay Cost: “I count about 95,000 votes in special election and 111,000 in primaries.” (UPDATE: Nevermind, it’s a glitch on the Pennsylvania site.)


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: burns; critz; pa12
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To: rcrngroup

“...I have a boss who is a liberal Phd from U of W-Madison, and he would vote for demoRATs including 0b0z0 the commie pig, even if 0bozo raped & pillaged 10 yr old girls on stage in front of a national audience. My younger brother & his fat ugly liberal wife are the same way. Such is the stupidity of liberals to vote forever in support of demoRATs & their evil agenda.”

You are right about hard-core leftists voting for leftists regardless how evil are those leftist politicians. However, I have found the clearest understanding of hard left people is not that they are stupid. Some are but the majority are more motivated by hate toward those who aren’t on their side. They are not as interested in their own guys, who are on their team and therefore to be defended and supported regardless, as they are in hating and stereotyping their opposition. They have an “us vs. them” view of politics.

They are also fundamentally greedy—but that is for a future post.


61 posted on 05/19/2010 9:47:02 AM PDT by iacovatx (If you must lie to recruit to your cause, you are fighting for the wrong side.)
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To: Buckeye Battle Cry
Look at any and all articles by Linda Chavez and search their website and past covers for any and all things Romney.

Well that explains it. I rarely read Linda Chavez since she became pro-illegal immigration. I stopped reading about Romney there when he ended his run against McCain in 2008.

62 posted on 05/19/2010 9:57:18 AM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: OldDeckHand
This is my worry - Pelosi will schedule a bunch of crazy-left votes (things that have NO CHANCE of passing) for this summer that will allow people like this Critz to vote against, and bear the "conservative" teeth. Americans, sadly, are just stupid enough to fall for, just like the voters in the PA special election.

House Republicans should try to force a vote to repeal obamacare. When Critz refuses to sponsor it (he said he wouldn't support repeal), make it a campaign issue so that voters can see what they got for their votes.

63 posted on 05/19/2010 10:23:43 AM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Pat Caddell: Democrats are drinking kool-aid in a political Jonestown)
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To: neverdem
Maelstorm posted in another thread:

Look at the Armstrong County numbers. There is clearly something wrong. If I were auditing it I’d have to say it looks like someone altered numbers except they didn’t bother to be consistent about it because the primary numbers reflect what was suspected but the special election numbers suggest a sizable number of Republicans crossed over and voted for Crtiz. Republican Turnout was significantly higher in this county than Democrat turnout as normal yet Critz pulled out a victory? McCain Won this county, Russell won this county, even Murtha in 2006 never amassed the percentage win that Critz did in this county against Diana Irey and if tonight had been the general election for Senate the Republican would have easily won. It may be explainable because of the Russell Burns conflict but it just looks strange.

I believe that this is the most important post of the day and it needs to be put up as a vanity.

I thought about this for a few hours and this is an operation chaos move that went wrong. Folks wanting Burns to lose the Special Election and Russell to win the primary and run against Critz. So, they voted for Russell and Critz.

Now in the cold like of day.. this tactic sucked but at the time it may very well have seemed smart.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2516417/posts?page=4#4

64 posted on 05/19/2010 11:36:52 AM PDT by dalight
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To: neverdem
I'm less and less impressed with NRO. It would have been close to a miracle to win that race in a 2-1 Dem district that has had perpetual Dem's elected since forever. This doesn't provide any indications on the wave that's sweeping this country. There's a bunch of people on both sides that want the Tea Party to fail and look for any excuse to say "see, I told you they aren't a factor". Nobody assumed the Republicans would win EVERY race this year.

Besides, Critz had to run almost to the right of Burns to win. It's not like he ran on an authentic Dem platform. I'm sure he'll toe the Pelosi line if he makes it in there this Fall.

65 posted on 05/19/2010 11:44:44 AM PDT by Reagan is King (>>> ALWAYS VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES! <<<)
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To: neverdem
I was skeptical that enough Russell supporters would do this to effect the race, but now I’m wondering. Did the Russell folks keep their ballots blank?

It's just not that simple, and it's certainly not a legitimate excuse for the Burns defeat.

Geraghty is clueless, just like so many other pontificating pundits, Republican establishment hacks and Tim Burns apologists.

These clowns drank the Burns kool-aid and now they're trying to spin their way out of it by impugning the integrity of the voters or the Russell campaign.

In reality, which eludes Geraghty and others, more votes were cast in the PA-12 special election than the PA-12 R and D primaries combined. The roughly 8,000 "extra" votes represent independents, who were allowed to vote in the special but not in the primaries. Republicans who voted for Russell in the primary also voted for Burns in the special election, even Bill Russell himself told his supporters that's exactly what he wanted them to do.

66 posted on 05/19/2010 12:23:12 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: neverdem

ND-I can understand. I tend to shy away from those sources these days as well. Peace to you.


67 posted on 05/19/2010 12:33:58 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Enjoy nature - eat meat, wear fur and drive your car!)
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To: Reagan is King
It would have been close to a miracle to win that race in a 2-1 Dem district that has had perpetual Dem's elected since forever. This doesn't provide any indications on the wave that's sweeping this country.

You and a bunch of others here missed the whole point of the article.

When there is a political wave the following happens: parties win special elections in normally difficult districts; they win with weak candidates; they win all the close elections. They just win, win, and win.

Burns was genuinely surprised to lose. He didn't write a concession speech beforehand.

68 posted on 05/19/2010 12:44:35 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: smoothsailing

Yeah, bad assessment by Geraghty.

In a 2-to-1 (D) district where the (D) ran as if he were not a (D), Burns didn’t do that bad.

Hopes high for Russell.


69 posted on 05/19/2010 5:13:39 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Your Hope has been redistributed. Here's your Change.)
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To: lasereye
That quote wasn't the point of the article, you're quoting a comment from some unknown reader that was described by Jim Geraghty as being "on the ledge".

This was the point of the article:
Tim Burns’s task was complicated by the fact that he was running against a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat who ran against the health-care bill and the cap-and-trade legislation. The Burns campaign did everything they could to tie Critz to Democratic figures and laws that polled badly in the district — Pelosi, the health-care bill — and it appears that in the end, voters in the district weren’t buying it. But I am wondering about the Burns campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation at this hour.

There were lots of reasons Burns lost this race and IMO it's not a referendum on the Tea Party power. Critz ran as a conservative in a district with 100,000 union members and a 2-1 Dem ratio. I guess we'll have to wait for the real answer in November.

70 posted on 05/20/2010 5:05:39 AM PDT by Reagan is King (>>> ALWAYS VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES! <<<)
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To: OldDeckHand
Americans, sadly, are just stupid enough to fall for, just like the voters in the PA special election. The 12th is inhabited by a very large number of union retirees who were the last to enjoy the big pensions negotiated in the 1950's.

These are Truman Democrats, X-over Eisenhower voters, and maybe Reagan voters. In fact, I have met a good number of them who probably think Eisenhower is STILL the President.

They are a dying breed. True Blue Americans who are genetic Democrats. They can easily be bamboozled by a "a good conservative story," because they want to be. If you are looking for a really good, lo-mileage 1992 Buick, driven by an elderly couple to church and the Elks once a week, this is the place.

BTW, if you meet them at the Lodge, or a church supper, do not expect to win any arguments.

71 posted on 05/20/2010 8:55:45 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Obama. He'll bring back States' Rights. In the meantime, this ain't gonna be pretty.)
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To: sickoflibs; neverdem; Eroteme; Kenny Bunk; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; ...

Ping from Granpa


72 posted on 05/20/2010 8:57:10 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (Obama. He'll bring back States' Rights. In the meantime, this ain't gonna be pretty.)
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To: neverdem

The NRO is full of limp wristed panty waisted losers.

The registration in PA-12 is two to one against the GOP... it’s pure sophistry to support the democrats media narrative that the results in PA-12 are bad for the GOP.


73 posted on 05/20/2010 12:02:20 PM PDT by o2bfree (This president is giving me a headache!)
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