Posted on 05/19/2010 6:32:54 AM PDT by marstegreg
Better do better next time PA-12 or a pox on your district. No wonder PA is losing population.
Murtha won by 62%, Critz won with 53%. Looks like some have figured it out, in the next few months more will follow. Remember PA-12 is 2/3 dem. We have our work cut out for us.
Americans were a little giddy when their tax returns hit the mailbox and some stories of hiring hit the press. And when their stock portfolios were rebounding.
But reality has set in; that short spending spree is history. The stock market is tanking again today. My liberal BIL who was beginning to spend like a banshee - and rub it in - is white as a ghost.
People are getting it that the rebound has stalled, and that things could go wacky in a hurry. Obama is getting the blame now, not for the original recession, but for what’s going on now. Bush is out of the picture completely.
People are getting it that the rebound has stalled, and that things could go wacky in a hurry.
I truly believe that the rebound was artificial via stimulus, bail outs, TARP and an endless amount of other programs . It was only a matter of time....
Three-day moving averages, such as Rasmussen uses in his daily tracking numbers, can sometimes give very misleading results. And for that reason, I think this morning’s number is close to meaningless.
It looks to me as if the Big Ø was hit by a severely out-of-range Rasmussen poll on Monday night, which made yesterday morning’s “Index” come in very low (-17), with today’s report even lower (-19). Nothing magic or significant here, probably just random statistical noise.
Moreover, the effects of that Monday night poll will still be embedded in tomorrow morning’s number. So look for the Index tomorrow to remain in the vicinity of ca. -17 to -19. Note that such a result can hold EVEN IF last night’s and tonight’s “raw numbers” for the Index are back around the current ten-day average of ca. -12.
In other words, don’t get excited about today’s -19 or the similar number we’re likely to see tomorrow. Pay attention to Friday morning. At that point the Index will probably be trying to move back up toward -12.
But if I’m wrong and it stays down around -19, then shout Halleluia — for a new downward shift will probably have been confirmed!
How long has it been?
if I’m wrong and it stays down around -19, then shout Halleluia — for a new downward shift will probably have been confirmed!
I will say a little prayer tonight. :)
Something that's not helping Zero's cause that hasn't been mentioned here is the latest news on the Arizona bill.
I think it's possible that there are enough folks who can read who have heard three senior Obamanoids each admit to not even having read it to account for at least part of the movement to today's and yesterday's numbers.
Where’s Barnacle Boy?
No more drinking in the morning for you! I've seen her look worse, but the word "hot" needs to be reserved for humanoids, dontcha think?
>> Something that’s not helping Zero’s cause that hasn’t been mentioned here is the latest news on the Arizona bill. I think it’s possible that there are enough folks who can read who have heard three senior Obamanoids each admit to not even having read it to account for at least part of the movement to today’s and yesterday’s numbers <<
Sure, I’ll agree, news like that probably can move the numbers down a point or two over just a few days. So maybe these news items explain why the ten-day average has recently moved down from ca. -11 to -12.
Moreover, as this kind of news “soaks in” to the public at large, the downward trend has every chance to continue.
My main point however is that such a huge drop in the reported Index number — six points in only two days — simply can’t be “real” by any stretch of the imagination, at least not in the absence of some clearly identifiable and overwhelming exogenous event.
Not long enough....ever!
MO ate him.
I agree. It's not a trend until the daily numbers align with the 10-day moving average.
Apologizing to China for Arizona’s “human rights violations” should knock off another point or two. If the news would report it.
“She is one. cold. individual”
Somehow I think that is her natural attitude. Everything else...just like Barry is fake.
What? Moving averages are excellent for moderating real world variation in time based data. Natural chatter often masks significant trends (up/down/steady) so by using a moving average these trends become more easily recognizable. If anything, I would like to see a greater than 3-day moving average used with the Rasmussen daily data. For example, I've used up to 30-day moving averages (extreme example I admit) in some types of data to discern significant trends more readily.
I’m actually thinking of a 3 point drop tomorrow. Obamugabe is playing “elitist” today with his celebrity chef State Dinner.
It will depend on how many people Ras polls that have some relationship with the unemployment scene.
The question I have is what was the turnout compared to an average mid-term. I do understand that the Democrat Senatorial primary did bring out more Democrats to the PA-12 race.
True, Critz did worse than Murtha, but of course Murtha was a long time incumbent with name recognition and Critz was not.
The PA-12 district is also unique in continuing to support Murtha after his “cold blood” comments and after his previous bribery problems.
Maybe your district needs some Aricept to help with their short term memory loss.
mmm, mmm, mmm
Barack Hussein Obama
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