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The ash cloud that never was: Inaccurate Met Office forecast causes airport chaos for 50,000
The Daily Mail (U.K.) ^ | May 18, 2010 | Ray Massey

Posted on 05/17/2010 7:54:05 PM PDT by Stoat

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To: 1010RD
Minimum standards ~ (1) That the airplane works, (2) There are no clinkers drifting about that will stall the engines in flight, (3) The pilot is well trained, (4) The pilot is not drunk, (5) There are no islamofascists on board, (6) Baggage has been checked for bombs and explosives, (7) That the airport at the end of the flight will be open for landing (has happened to me more than once that there were bears, or machinery, on the runway).

There are others.

I think "plane works" and "no clinkers" are very important.

21 posted on 05/18/2010 7:59:56 AM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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To: muawiyah
Ash cloud is ash cloud, no matter where it is. So, the basics of how you deal with flying in ash affected areas is simple—as explained in my post.

European airspace is simple as well, I've flown there for many years. Crossing borders in Europe is not a big deal and is seamless to the aircraft and takes no notice of the population of a country. Kind of like shared airspace between Canada and the United States. . .flights corss over and back all the time, no great shakes.

While national controllers “control” their airspace, it is a shared duty depending upon flight details. So, I think the concern you raise about European airspace really don't apply here.

22 posted on 05/18/2010 8:10:28 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: muawiyah

Just curious, what’s a “clinker?”


23 posted on 05/18/2010 8:11:43 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: Hulka

When you burn down a lump of coal the unburnable parts are called “clinkers”. FOr the most part “clinkers” are large chunks, but there’s no rule that says you can’t also include volcanic ash in the category ~ particularly when the same volcano is tossing rocks the size of Volkswagens.


24 posted on 05/18/2010 8:14:30 AM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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To: Stoat

“‘I am very concerned that we have decisions on opening and closing of airports based on a theoretical model,’ “

Theoretical models using inaccurate data are the same methods bureaucrats and snake oil salesmen are using to stampede the public into man caused global warming hysteria.


25 posted on 05/18/2010 8:16:12 AM PDT by Let's Roll (Stop paying ACORN to destroy America! Cut off their federal funding!)
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To: muawiyah

Wow. . .please let me know when a Volkswagon-sized chunk reaches 20,000’. . .that would be something to see, for sure, and probably more dangerous than an Oklahoma hailstorm.


26 posted on 05/18/2010 8:38:50 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: Hulka

Could be pretty dangerous. I believe Yellowstone does that quite normally when it goes off. Fortunately it doesn’t explode very often.


27 posted on 05/18/2010 8:45:12 AM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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To: knarf
when this first came out, I questioned the severity based on the location of England in relation to Iceland and the prevailing winds

The problem is that here in England the prevailing winds haven't been, er, prevailing. For many months we've had an unusually prolonged succession of northerlies, on the Eastern side of large North Atlantic high pressure systems. These brought us an exceptionally cold winter, a cold dry spring...and the ash. The prevailing moist, mild Atlantic southwesterlies have been rare visitors recently: although this week we're at last beginning to get some warmer westerlies.

28 posted on 05/18/2010 9:16:24 AM PDT by Winniesboy
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To: muawiyah

Excellent. I like and agree with all your minimums and we might add some more value added items like a functioning bathroom, snacks, water or other beverages, etc. But at a bare minimum yours work fine.

So we have no regulatory agency overseeing flight safety from maintenance to pilot quality to security. You and I own an airline together. As our marketing director how do you suggest we advertise (truthfully as fraud is always illegal) our airline to our clients?

Would we emphasize our Six Sigma maintenance program? How often our planes are refurbished? Our flight safety record? Our AAA insurance company in case of any loss? How modern our fleet is? That covers (1) & (2).

How about the years of flying experience of our pilots? Their training and hours on the aircraft they fly? Our hiring procedure in which we only employ teetotalers as pilots? That we random drug test? That covers (3) & (4).

Next we could emphasize our pilot’s training in inflight combat on board an aircraft and their proficiency with small arms. We might mention that we randomly place our own security people trained to Mossad levels of lethality in combating terrorists or that our flight crew is similarly trained. We might emphasize our passenger and baggage screening programs. How about that for (5) & (6)?

Finally, we would mention that since absolute deregulation of air travel we’re part owners of the Air Traffic Control system and have purchased from the now privately owned airports our own “gates” owned like residential/commercial condos by our airline guaranteeing us clutter free run ways, ontime departures/landings, etc.

All that is something we’d do outside of the “regulators” purview just to compete. Why wouldn’t it work?


29 posted on 05/18/2010 11:36:05 AM PDT by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
You still need a way to detect, measure and evaluate the threat posed by volcanic ash.
30 posted on 05/18/2010 2:32:40 PM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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To: muawiyah

Agreed. My understanding is that the airlines tested this aspect themselves and proved that their engines weren’t at any great risk.

What private options are available for this kind of assessment?

My point is that for the most part the market can resolve these kinds of issues without the heavy hand of government. We want government to intercede in cases of clear abuse, fraud, and collusion.

In those cases the punishments should fit the crime, even to the point of holding the appropriate executives liable, dissolving corporations for egregious abuses, or bankrupting them in courts.

Those threats above are enough to make me want to run our airline safely, not to mention the profit motive, no?

BTW, what should we call our airline? ;-]


31 posted on 05/18/2010 6:23:12 PM PDT by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
No, those sanctions are not nearly enough. Remember, while the German airline guys were telling the world their engines showed no signs of damage from flying through/around/near the parts of the debris clouds they chose to fly through/around/near, the Belgian Air Force reported injury to their jet engines from flying through/around/near the parts of the debris clouds they chose to fly through/around/near.

So, who's the consumer to believe?

32 posted on 05/18/2010 6:47:04 PM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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To: Hulka

Funny how the inaccurate volcanic ash predictions come from the same Met office that is so aggressively promoting AGW through mathematic predictions.

They expect us to change our lifestyles to stop predicted warming, yet they can’t accurately predict where an ash cloud will be a few hours in the future.


33 posted on 05/18/2010 6:53:22 PM PDT by MediaMole
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To: muawiyah

I am a big fan of watching their hands while ignoring their mouths. I use the surgeon all the nurses use, so in this case I’d fly the airline/route all the pilots use.

Who wants to die.

What do we call our airline? I want to get our logo started and order cards asap!


34 posted on 05/18/2010 7:13:50 PM PDT by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: muawiyah

You probably can develop (if not now buy) an air sampling probe for your aircraft that measures some parameters related to dust/smoke/ash/tephra quantitatively. Consult with your engine manufacturer (and that company’s engineering design specifications) and then determine a comfortable margin of safety and avoidance protocol for situations when your instrumentation reads above a certain threshold.


35 posted on 05/18/2010 7:25:48 PM PDT by dufekin (Name the leader of our enemy: Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, terrorist dictator)
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To: MediaMole

This same Met Office botches forecasts in a high-profile way quite regularly. Their hot and snowless winter turned into a severely cold one featuring unusually persistent deep heavy snow. Their “barbecue summer” featured persistent cold and frequent heavy rain. I’m sure that they’ll find some “global warming” excuse to explain how their often wrong computer models erred, but their computer models forecasting extreme doom from “global warming” are undeniably perfectly accurate.


36 posted on 05/18/2010 7:29:52 PM PDT by dufekin (Name the leader of our enemy: Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, terrorist dictator)
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To: 1010RD

“So we have no regulatory agency overseeing flight safety from maintenance to pilot quality to security. “

FAA.. .perhaps?

They have that responsibility (except for the “security” part, DHS has that). Now, if you want to talk about effectiveness, that’s different, as the FAA has in place flight examiners that NEVER WERE PILOTS (because they fill diversity quotas).


37 posted on 05/19/2010 11:37:42 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: muawiyah
"So, who's the consumer to believe?"

The aircraft manufacturers and engine manufacturers.

Thus far, all report none to absolute minimal potential or real damage when flying in conditions as they exist over Europe. Over 1,000 flights have been conducted with Boeing aircraft alone, with no passengers, and they all come back no damage.

38 posted on 05/19/2010 11:41:25 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: MediaMole

Indeed.


39 posted on 05/19/2010 11:42:05 AM PDT by Hulka
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To: Hulka
Like to see the maintenance certifications on the people who did the examinations of the engines.

Alas, we are not talking about the capability of the engines but instead the ability of a cloud of volcanic ash to damage them.

For all anyone knows the Germans actually took their aircraft AROUND the clouds and not through them. The Belgians probably imagined they were giant sausages in the sky and barged on through the clouds.

40 posted on 05/19/2010 11:44:46 AM PDT by muawiyah ("Git Out The Way")
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