Posted on 05/10/2010 7:55:33 PM PDT by ErnstStavroBlofeld
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has just published a new study on Iran's missile programme. Here are some of the main conclusions.
* The Iranian government has diverted enormous resources to its ballistic missile programme and now surpasses North Korea in its capacity to produce missile components. Iran may soon establish a production line for making liquid-fuel engines, "if it has not done so already".
*The solid-fuel Sajjil-2 missiles, with a 2,000 km range, first tested a year ago, may be a "hedge" after engineers realised that any future Iranian nuclear weapon would weigh over 1,000 kg, and any liquid-fuel missile to deliver long distances it would be "very large and cumbersome", and would require large underground silos which would take a long time to build.
* Iranian engineers still have a long way to go to develop and test intermediate and long-range weapons. They have been hampered by improvements in controls on the transfer of missile technology, particularly from Russia and Ukraine. They would have to develop tracking and telemetry systems and develop technology to protect a warhead from atmospheric reentry.
Therefore, Iran is not likely to field a liquid-fuelled missile capable of targeting Western Europe before 2014 or 2015. A three-stage version of the solid-propellant Sajjil capable of delivering a one-tonne warhead 3,700km similarly is at least four or five years away from possible deployment.
* Iran would probably have to field an intermediate-range weapon prior to developing a long-range weapon capable of hitting the US mainland.
It is thus reasonable to conclude that a notional Iranian ICBM, based on Nodong and Scud technologies, is more than a decade away from development.
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Want to bet?
2014 is just 4 years away, so don’t get too cozy with this report. They may connect the dots sooner - or they may have a pad explosion similar to that which killed Marshall Nedelin (Soviet Union Strategic Rocket Forces) and some key engineers. The latter would be nice.
As for solids - the tricky part is fabricating large propellant grains. That’s why the Soviet Union was using liquid fueled missiles in their boomer subs for so long.
Personally, they will have a long range missile within a year or two. Many of these think tanks do not have information that is not available to them.So they make a “educated guess:.
Iran has already demonstrated a three stage operation with the solid propellant Ghadr-110/Ashura program 2,000 km range designed is now being produced for deployment which has finally been publicly acknowledged after completing development to replace the liquid propellant Shahab-3B, 3C/Ghadr-1 already deployed.
That would be my guess, they will have the delivery system
at the same time as the weapon.
Even if they don’t, I would expect intermediate range missiles launched from merchant ships, probably disguised
as oil tankers. (Who says they don’t have a sense of humor.)
I don't know what this think-tank's agenda is, but they are not telling the whole story. The Iranians have already lofted a satellite. The only difference between a satellite and a ballistic missile is weight and velocity. The same lift capacity in a vehicle that can loft a few dozen pound payload into low Earth orbit can loft a much heavier payload to a lower velocity. It doesn't achieve orbit, instead falling back to Earth in the familiar ballistic arc. I could work through the physics, but you get the idea: you trade weight for distance, with orbit being the ultimate distance.
This could be an effort to give the obama administration cover for stopping or slowing development and deployment of the European based components of our missile shield.
I agree with you.
Let’s see, do I want to believe a newspaper that’s been consistently wrong for decades?
A miniature warhead is a tool of many uses...
I agree. Including having proxies/people sneaking in warheads into population centers without no one knowing about it.
They will target NYC.
I am willing to risk it.
To do that they need weapons grade plutonium not enriched uranium. They also need to work out the deceptively simple yet maddeningly complex and unforgiving implosion design.
My bet as for now they are taking the path of least resistance and working on a uranium fueled, gun type device. Very simple, no complex timing devices, horribly inefficient, bulky, and heavy.
"Little Boy" used 60 Kg (130 Lb) of U235 of which only 1.38% actually contributed to the fission process with a blast yield of 13 kilotons of TNT. "Fat Man" used about 6.4 Kg (14.1 Lbs) of Pu239 to produce a blast yield of 21 kilotons of TNT.
I would guess their "labratory-prototype" gadget will weigh in around 5 tons and more then likely be deliverable only by an ocean going ship. So all the clap trap about missiles and EMP bursts is just rope-a-dope to keep us looking in the wrong direction.
Regards,
GtG
They are getting real close to developing plutonium(if the North Koreans have already given them the technology)
Any major city is a target. But if you want two high profile targets it would be Washington D.C or New York City
Remember, Iranian scientists have been present at the two North Korean tests that have used plutonium.
The first NK test was so puny I suspect that 'lil Kim has his worker bees fill a tunnel with tons of ANFO and a sprinkling of radio isotopes and let 'er rip. We only have his word that it was a nuclear test.
The second test had almost no detectable yield. His bluffing worked for him when he snookered the clinton administration into giving him "heavy crude" oil for some nine years, saving his bankrupt regime.
I believe that both North Korea and Iran are quite capable of lying about possessing nuclear weapons to pressure us into concessions. I don't see us calling their bluff either so they have nothing to lose by lying.
Regards,
GtG
It still measured on seismographs and that is how the USA and the Japanese knew the tests took place.
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